How the electric car will change the electricity market
2040, the energy tipping point
According to the Accenture study, France will have around one million electrified (electric and hybrid) cars by 2025. But electric car sales will only outnumber conventional ones around 2040. This growth will spawn a new, 200 billion euro French market of electricity production, infrastructure, and associated services.
Traditional electricity producers will benefit, but other parties are already starting to show an interest — oil companies, for example. Petrol stations already offer charging facilities.
Local governments could also come into the equation, like in Paris, where the city owns a network of charging facilities it inherited from Autolib. Tesla already has a network, and parking facility management companies could deploy one. The market for charging facility alone will be worth around 40 million by 2040.
The other part of the report is called the ‘valorization of flexibility.’ It talks about the capacity to capitalize on responding to energy needs by using the energy storage capacity of cars. EDF already has a system set up.
“This is about intelligently stocking power and delivering it in the function of market prices and demand, instead of centralized production facilities,” says Accenture Director, Thierry Mileo.
This flexibility will make it possible to eliminate spikes of energy production, allowing for lower total production capacity. But this market will only represent 6 billion euros. The last part of the report treats the 20-billion market for additional services. Think of financing electric cars, batteries, and other services.
This ecosystem will implicate numerous actors, including foreign companies. But, according to Accenture, the heart of the ecosystem will still be the ‘usual suspects’, like EDF, GDF Suez, and Enedis. Their traditional activity will still be essential, worth around 130 billion, but it won’t be viable on its own.
Thierry Mileo feels there is an enormous challenge for public regulation in the ecosystem. “We have two theoretical scenarios. The first is a completely private ecosystem with recharging at home. The second implicates the public domain and charging facilities in it. We think the second scenario will maximize the usage of charge poles because they can be used by more vehicles.”
Regulation could also include a tariff policy. Cities could implement incentives, charge times, and specific parking regulations. According to Accenture, market prices will become more volatile, while governments will want to manage energy spending.
The dawn of the electric car and its ecosystem could be a solution, while it will create new markets but also avoid heavy investments in production capacity. Nevertheless, traditional energy producers will need to make partnerships. And they are already doing so. EDF made a deal with Nissan, Engie is working with Arval.
“Everyone is starting to build their ecosystem,” says Thierry Mileo. “They have an interest in remaining in the center of the game since they have privileged client links.”