China’s new ‘2035 roadmap’ aims at end of pure ICE cars
The Chinese government has released a new updated roadmap for its automotive industry, aiming at 50% of total car sales by 2035 being so-called New Energy Vehicles (NEVs) and the rest classic hybrids. 2035 will mark the end of cars with combustion engines (ICE) only.
China’s auto industry carbon emissions will reach its final peak in 2028, ahead of the national CO2 emission reduction commitments, and decline further. Plug-in hybrids (PHEV), battery-electric (BEV), and fuel cell (FCEV) cars will account for 50% of all sales in 2035. By then, the market for hydrogen cars will be even more than a million. That is especially expected for commercial vehicles.
Phasing out ICE
According to the Chinese Society of Automotive Engineers (SAE) that released the targets last week on its Annual Conference under the government’s guidance, more than a thousand experts from the sector have worked on this ‘Technology Roadmap for Energy Saving and New Energy Vehicles 2.0’.
The Chinese want to phase out the internal combustion engine by replacing it with 75% hybrids already in 2030 and 100% by 2035. In 2025 the Chinese government wants the share of NEVs to be 20%, compared to the five percent today. Battery-electric vehicles are the lion’s share today.
The roadmap counts on an annual Chinese automobile production of 32 million cars in 2025, 38 million in 2030, and 40 million by 2035. The overall fossil fuel consumption should decrease to an average of 4,6 liter per 100km in 2025, 3,2 l in 2030, and 2,0 l in 2035 for passenger cars. Truck fuel consumption is to be reduced by 10%, 15%, and 20, respectively, compared to 2019.
The consumption of renewable electricity by these electric vehicles will reach in 2035 an estimated 100 billion kilowatt-hours. By then, all electric cars and charging infrastructure will feature V2G (vehicle-to-grid) technology in which cars can give back spare energy to the grid.
Another remarkable paragraph in the roadmap is that swichable batteries or offering ‘Battery-as-a- Service‘, like carmaker Nio and battery maker CATL, are already proposing today, will be commonly used by electric cars, especially for shared ones.
The roadmap 2.0 also predicts the number of cars that feature partially automated driving (PA) and conditional autonomous driving (CA), which compares to SAE Level 3 in the western world to be 50% of sales in 2025 and 70% in 2030. Highly automated driving (HA), say Level 4, should appear on the market by 2025 and account for 20% of sales by 2030.
By 2035 the Chinese government counts on ‘various networked highly autonomous vehicles (HA) to be widely used in vast areas of China’ with ‘intelligent infrastructure of highways and urban roads’. V2X technology (vehicle to everything), big data, and high-precision maps with an accuracy ‘close to centimeter-level’ will allow the highest, fully automated driving (FA).