Aviation sector expects record 2025 with +five billion passengers

IATA, the global airline umbrella organization, expects airlines worldwide to carry 5.2 billion passengers next year, the first time this will exceed the 5 billion mark. More passengers also mean more flights, leading to higher CO2 emissions from the aviation sector.

For example, using more sustainable fuels, such as biomass or used oils, could help address this. But IATA warns that the production of Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAFs) lags behind forecasts.

Up with 6.7%

According to that forecast, the number of air passengers in 2025 would be 6.7% higher than in 2024. For this year, the forecast is for 4.96 billion passengers worldwide. That is already an improvement from the record of 4.54 billion in 2029 before the Covid-19 pandemic sent global tourism plummeting.

A logical consequence of rising passenger numbers is that airlines’ profitability will improve next year. IATA expects passenger and cargo airlines to post 36.6 billion dollars, or some 34.7 billion euros, of net profit, 16% more than this year. The net profit margin will increase to 3.6% or an average of 7 dollars per passenger.

The average ticket price is expected to be 380 dollars, down 1.8% from 2024. Considering inflation, this is 44% less than a decade earlier, which is opposed to what customers in other sectors pay.

Ceiling of $1,000 billion breached

That expected profit rise will also come from lower paraffin prices and higher travel demand. In 2025, for example, a barrel of kerosene is expected to cost an average of 87 dollars – in 2024, this was 99 dollars. In absolute terms, companies’ spending on fuel is expected to reach 248 billion dollars, down 4.8%, despite a 6% increase in consumption.

But IATA, which represents some 340 airlines, warns that possible tariff and trade wars under the next US president Donald Trump could throw a spanner in the works.

For the first time in 2025, total airline sales will exceed 1,000 billion dollars, or the 1 trillion mark.

More passengers at Brussels Airport, too

That trend toward more passengers is also already noticeable at Brussels Airport this year. In November, the airport in Zaventem welcomed more than 1.7 million passengers, up 9% compared to a year ago. The amount of cargo carried rose by 18% to 67,320 tons.

Brussels Airport also recorded a 5% increase in aircraft movements compared to November 2023. The number of passenger flights rose 5%, and cargo flights increased 12% year-on-year.

Shortage of SAFs

However, along with those hurrah figures for the aviation sector, IATA reiterates that producing more sustainable aviation fuel, or SAF, is lagging behind forecasts. Many airlines are just relying on those SAFs to reduce their CO2 emissions.

IATA expects 1.3 billion liters of SAF to have been produced this year. That is more than double the 600 million liters in 2023, but 0.6 billion liters less than expected. For next year, IATA expects production to double again to 2.7 billion liters. But that will still only cover 0.7% of all kerosene consumption by aircraft – a mere trifle, in other words.

According to IATA chief Willie Walsh, the problem is not with demand but with production. “The big oil companies have not made the necessary investments. That is a source of frustration and concern for us because it is in everyone’s interest that we can move toward zero CO2 emissions.”

The aviation sector currently produces some 3% of global CO2 emissions and has ambitions to move to zero emissions by 2050. To do so, it primarily counts on SAF, which is more expensive than traditional kerosene. “The 2050 target is currently not in jeopardy,” says Walsh. “But if this trend continues beyond 2030, I will become concerned.” He called on the government to support the production of SAF further.

Not tender for manufacturers

Further, the IATA chief also lashed out at manufacturers, including aircraft manufacturers such as Boeing and Airbus, and engine manufacturers such as GE, Rolls-Royce, Pand ratt, and Whitney, for their “unacceptable” inability to fulfill their orders on time.

According to IATA, 1,254 aircraft are expected to be handed over to their customers this year, 30% less than planned at the beginning of the year. As many as 700 aircraft, or 2% of the world’s fleet, are currently also grounded for engine inspections.

According to Walsh, this situation is preventing airlines from renewing their fleets at the planned rate and forcing them to continue using older, less efficient, and, therefore, more polluting aircraft.

The average aircraft age in fleets increased to 14.8 years, compared to 13.6 years between 1990 and 2024, causing higher maintenance costs and fuel consumption. The aircraft manufacturers’ order book now stands at 17,000 aircraft, a record.