‘Tourism responsible for 8.8% of global CO2 emissions in 2019’

According to a new study by Nature Communications, tourism turnover almost doubled between 2009 and 2019, representing an annual growth of 5.5 percent. However, this strong growth is accompanied by a carbon footprint of 5.2 gigatons of CO2 equivalent or 8.8 percent of global emissions. The primary drivers of emissions growth are slow technology efficiency gains (0.3% p.a.) and sustained high growth in tourism demand.

Tourism is carbon-intensive. Between 2009 and 2019, global tourism emissions grew 3.5% year-on-year, twice that of the worldwide economy (1.5%). If the same growth rate is maintained in future years, tourism emissions are expected to double every 20 years.

Little progress

The study reveals that the tourism industry has made little progress in reducing emissions. While technology and supply chain efficiencies improved from 2009 to 2019, those carbon efficiency gains have lagged far behind other sectors.

In 2013, global tourism contributed 8% of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and its carbon intensity, defined as emissions per dollar sales, was 20% higher than the average for the global economy. Historically, most destinations have demonstrated an inability to decouple growth in tourist demand from increasing tourism emissions.

Brief respite

The Covid-19 pandemic offered a brief respite in tourism’s climate impact. Before the pandemic, global tourism was one of the fastest-growing sectors in the world for ten consecutive years. The Covid-19 crisis was the only event drastically reducing tourism’s carbon footprint, producing a more negligible environmental impact than the base year 2009.

In 2020, limitations in international travel and reductions in domestic tourism led to a decline in global tourism emissions from 5.2 gigatons in 2019 to 2.2 gigatons in one year. The decline in emissions results from foregone consumption and the concomitant reduction in air travel and private vehicle use.

Although the Covid-19 crisis offered a brief respite in tourism’s climate impact, the swift resurgence in global tourism demand signaled a return to the high emissions levels of 2019.

Post-pandemic tourism rebound

The post-pandemic tourism rebound has been rapid, and international tourism is likely to again surpass 20 billion trips in 2024. This sector is pivotal to global emissions trajectories and must be aligned with the Paris Agreement. To meet the Paris Climate Agreement’s target of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, emissions from the sector would have to fall by more than 10 percent annually by 2050.

Nature Communications’s study analyzed five key factors influencing tourism emissions: 1. Technology improvements regarding energy efficiency gains; 2. The supply chain concerning the production structure among suppliers; 3. Population growth relating to changes in the volume of tourists; 4. Tourism consumption is responsible for the evolving patterns of tourist expenditure; and 5. The use of private vehicles regarding direct emissions generated by internal combustion vehicles used by tourists.

This study used tourism expenditure profiles from 175 countries, including the tourism satellite accounts of 62 countries and tourism consumption data of 113 countries.