Is Toyota’s ‘future’ car, the Mirai nearing death?

Mirai (未来 or 未來) is a Japanese given name. It means ‘future,’ but in the case of Toyota’s pioneering fuel cell (FCEV) passenger car on hydrogen, a gloomy one as global sales plunged to a record low of 134 units in November and only 1,702 since January 2024, of which 661 in Japan.

That’s a steep 54% drop compared with the year before, and the future outlook isn’t bright either. December is traditionally a slow sales month due to the winter cold, so it’s expected that 2024 will be marked in the Toyota Mirai history as bad (1770) as the COVID-19 Year 2020.

To compare, a year later, in 2021, Toyota sold 5,918 Mirais worldwide, while the average for the preceding years, 2017-2019, was around 2,500 cars. Even 2022 (3,924 units) and 2023 (4,023 units) weren’t bad years, leaving a glimpse of hope for growth.

Only BMW to go for FCEV in Europe

Toyota has always fiercely defended its view on various technologies beyond battery electric cars for the energy transition. Something BMW, the only European carmaker to plan a hydrogen FCEV for the future, is doing likewise.

At the beginning of December, BMW boss Oliver Zipse defended the decision to launch a series of vehicles with a hydrogen fuel cell in 2028, while other car manufacturers have significantly scaled back their fuel cell activities. “The decision is based on an analysis of what is happening in the global markets: Where are the regulations heading, and what do customers expect?” says Zipse.

Misleading marketing?

But what happens in global markets isn’t making a splendid picture today. Toyota faced a plaintiff from a group of Mirai owners in California, one of its biggest export markets for the Mirai and the only US state where the car is sold, accusing the automaker of misleading marketing about the usability of its hydrogen fuel cell vehicle.

Frustrations are numerous, including a lack of operational refueling stations, high hydrogen fuel costs, and the Mirai’s underwhelming range, which they argue makes the car nearly ‘unusable’ for daily driving. In August 2024, a new class action came on top of the older one in California.

Failing infrastructure

A group of Mirai owners accuses the carmaker of forcing sedan owners to use fuelling stations exclusively from First Element and monopolizing the hydrogen pricing.  Despite Toyota’s claims that refueling would be as simple as gasoline, owners face frequent issues such as long drives to find stations, broken equipment, and incompatible fuel cards.

This often results in the need for tow trucks and alternative transport. Additionally, hydrogen fuel can be unavailable for days, and refueling can take hours due to hydrogen pumps freezing and locking onto vehicles.

An October 1 snapshot of the Hydrogen Fuel Cell Partnership’s refueling station tracker listed 55 retail stations in California, 12 of which are unavailable due to ongoing hydrogen supply disruptions and five offline due to mechanical issues. The Partnership is a collaboration of auto manufacturers, energy companies, fuel cell technology companies, and government agencies.

California: highest hydrogen price worldwide

California has the reputation of having the highest hydrogen prices in the world. Its hydrogen market was experiencing a seismic shift, with prices doubling to an astonishing $32 per kilogram for gray or ‘dirty’ hydrogen. That’s three to four times the price of gasoline and four times more than in Japan or Korea.

California requires hydrogen to be at least 33% green, but up to 95 percent of hydrogen is sourced from fossil fuels. And if natural gas is used to make the hydrogen, FCEVs like the Toyota Mirai running on it, emit up to 30% more CO2 than conventional cars with combustion engines.

Paris Olympics ‘failure’

That’s what a group of British scientists from the Centre For Sustainable Road Freight (SRF), a collaboration between Cambridge, Heriot-Watt, and Westminster Universities and the freight transport industry, say.

They wrote a letter to Paris mayor Anne Hidalgo, reputed for her clean mobility efforts, warning that “the fleet of Toyota’s hydrogen cars derailed the green credibility of the Paris Olympics.”

Referring to the “failure” of the “First Hydrogen Games” in Japan in 2020, they conclude that running all the courtesy and shuttle vehicles on diesel instead of hydrogen would have resulted in better well-to-wheel emissions.