Met Office: ‘2024 saw fastest annual rise ever in CO2 emissions’

According to a study by the Met Office, the UK’s national weather and climate service, the increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) is now incompatible with IPCC pathways that remain below 1.5°C. Last year saw the fastest annual rise in atmospheric CO₂ concentration in the long-running record of measurements.

Satellite measurements showed a huge rise across the globe due to the impact of record-high emissions from fossil fuel burning, magnified by weaker natural carbon sinks—such as tropical forests—and exceptional wildfires. These were due to widespread hot, dry conditions, partly linked to El Niño and partly to other factors, including climate change.

2024 warmest year on record

The CO₂ rise between 2024 and 2025 is forecast to be less extreme than last year, but even this slower rise will still be too fast to track the IPCC’s scenarios that limit global warming to 1.5°C with little or no overshoot. The build-up of CO₂ and other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere has already heated the climate to damaging levels.

2024 was the warmest year on record, with annual average temperatures higher than 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels for the first time. However, even if 2025 might be a slightly cooler year, the long-term warming trend will continue because CO₂ is still building up in the atmosphere.

Professor Richard Betts, who leads the production of the forecast: “Stopping global warming needs the build-up of greenhouse gases in the air to come to a complete halt and then start to reduce. Large, rapid emissions cuts could limit the extent to which global warming exceeds 1.5°C – but this needs urgent action internationally.”

Emissions in Belgium declined

However, greenhouse gas emissions in Belgium in 2023 fell by 4.62 percent compared to 2022. This is a decrease of 32.4 percent compared to the reference year 1990. This is evident from the provisional national inventory published on the website of the Climate Change Department of the FPS Public Health, Food Chain Safety, and Environment.

Total greenhouse gas emissions, excluding those from land use and management, amounted to 98.6 Mt CO2 equivalents in 2023. Most of those emissions were carbon dioxide (CO2) (85.8%). Smaller shares were for methane (CH4) (7.7%), nitrous oxide (N2O) (4.4%) and fluorinated hydrocarbon compounds (2.1 %).

Transport sector

The transport sector accounts for about a quarter (24.9 %) of total emissions. This is followed by energy consumption in industry (15.9%) and industrial processes (15.5 %). It is striking that emissions from the transport sector have increased compared to 1990 (+17 %).

As part of the European Green Deal, Belgium has committed to reducing emissions by 47 percent by 2030 compared to 2005. Net-zero emissions must be achieved by 2050, which means that no more greenhouse gases are emitted than are captured.

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