With the stroke of a pen, new US President Donald Trump has withdrawn the US from the Paris climate agreement. In doing so, Trump is responding to the concern among many Americans and Western citizens that the international promise to keep global warming well below 2 degrees Celsius will mainly disrupt current prosperity.
“The United States will not sabotage its own industry while China unapologetically pollutes,” Trump explains—a “very regrettable development,” according to European Commissioner Wopke Hoekstra (Climate).
‘Science is crystal clear’
“The science is crystal clear: every stepwise increase in global temperature entails enormous costs, economically, socially, but also in human lives,” says Hoekstra. He said it is necessary to continue working together to prevent rising temperatures, more frequent natural disasters, and unpredictable weather patterns.
“By withdrawing the United States from the Paris Climate Agreement, Donald Trump is denying reality and science,” Greenpeace said. “Trump and his allies are thus turning their backs on the international community and isolating the US. Their agenda will leave them behind in the global push for climate action and the transition to renewable energy.”
But what consequences could his decision have for the US and the world?
Consequences
According to an analysis by climate site CarbonBrief, Trump’s policy will result in an additional four billion tons of CO2 emissions by 2030. That is approximately what the entire EU emitted in 2010, but ‘only’ about 2.5 percent of world emissions per year.
Despite the withdrawal, many states, various coalitions of companies, cities, and other local authorities have announced that they want to continue the energy transition. Yet Trump’s decision could have serious consequences for the rest of the world.
Other countries could also withdraw. The withdrawal could be the death knell for the already complex negotiations on climate money for poorer countries.
China?
Top emitter China, for example, can go in two directions: either the country stops seeing the climate as a top priority, or the government will step up its game now that the US is disappearing. As a producer of batteries, wind turbines, and solar panels, it has much to gain from the transition.
However, experts are far from confident about the repercussions for Europe. “Hopefully, climate policy is strong enough to survive,” they say.
Experts are worried
Experts are worried about global warming. US emissions, which have been on the decline since 2009, are expected to decline by around 10 to 15 percent under Trump, according to CarbonBrief’s analysis of Trump’s plans.
It also appears that China will reduce its emissions slightly for the first time, but it is highly questionable whether this will be enough to reduce global emissions.
Not enough
According to Professor of Environmental Science Detlef van Vuuren, Planning Office for the Environment, Utrecht University, “We will remain at approximately the current level of emissions and, at most, start a slight decrease.
Experts expect some of Trump’s predecessor’s climate-friendly policies to be maintained. However, this is not what we need to stay well below 2 degrees Celsius.”
‘Impossible to ignore’
Meanwhile, Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has said Europe stands by the Paris climate agreement and will continue to work with all nations that want to stop global warming. She stressed that it is “impossible” to “ignore” the impact of climate change.
She referred, among other things, to the forest fires in Los Angeles. “All continents will have to accelerate the transition to zero emissions and tackle the increasing burden of climate change,” she argued.
The Paris Climate Agreement was concluded in the French capital at the end of 2015 within the framework of the United Nations. The more than 170 participating Member States pledged to make efforts to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees compared to pre-industrial times.
Comments
Ready to join the conversation?
You must be an active subscriber to leave a comment.
Subscribe Today