T&E: EU’s rescue plan to create demand for 2.2 million EVs by 2030?

The European Commission is revising its plan to remedy the ongoing EV crisis. Green lobby group Transport & Environment has reflected upon the impact of the upcoming proposal, clarifying that a well-chosen scheme for electrifying company cars could create market demand of 2.2 million EVs by the decade’s end.

The study reveals that this would account for half of the EU carmakers’ CO2-emission targets. Ironically, Belgium is referred to as the model for these incentives at a time when the government decided to dilute its corporate car scheme.

The European Commission is gearing up to accelerate the electrification of corporate car fleets. Tensions rise over the slow pace of EV adoption and subsequent impact on jobs in the sector, including suppliers, as massive investments fail to pay off.

“The crisis in the automotive sector is a human crisis, affecting the fate of millions of men and women who work in the European automotive supply chain. This is our absolute priority and focus. The Commission must send workers a signal that policymakers understand the scale of anxiety that restructurings entail”, commented President of the European Commission Ursula Von Der Leyen.

Acceleration and assimilation

That signal will turn into a rescue plan. Not by boosting demand among privateers – where the heart of the problem lies – but by electrifying corporate cars following the Belgian strategy. With corporate vehicles representing nearly 60% of all new car registrations in the EU, this strategy still has a resonating impact.

It aims to accelerate the European car fleet’s electrification while helping manufacturers meet stringent 2030 CO₂ emission targets, which the Commission refrains.

Full details of the new law proposal, which focuses on boosting demand for electric vehicles manufactured in Europe, are planned to be presented on March 5th. Transport & Environment (T&E) examined the projected effects of such an action plan in a study. Based on French statistics, it set up a recommendation framework for how the strategy should be implemented.

Large companies: high-impact

Under the proposed regulation from T&E, all companies operating fleets of 100 or more vehicles should be required to switch entirely to zero-emission vehicles by 2030. Large companies are low in numbers but high in impact due to the sheer volume of their car fleets.

According to their market analyses, this approach would guarantee demand for 2.1 million European-made EVs annually, approximately half of the volume required for automakers to comply with 2030 CO₂ targets.

But how should the European Commission ensure fleets don’t opt for cheaper Chinese imports? According to T&E, introducing an EU-wide “eco-score” system mirroring France’s existing eco-bonus program should be a key component of the proposal.

This score would assess vehicles using low-carbon materials and energy-efficient production methods, effectively favoring locally manufactured EVs. If implemented, the eco-score could incentivize fleet operators to prioritize EU-made electric cars over imports.

80% second-hand market

Another reason for choosing corporate over private is to accelerate the supply on the second-hand market. Due to shorter ownership cycles, corporate fleet electrification is expected to release nearly seven million second-hand EVs onto the European market by 2035, providing more affordable options for private buyers.

Since nearly 80% of EU citizens purchase vehicles from the used-car market, this influx of pre-owned EVs could play a crucial role in democratizing electrification.

In EU circles, Belgium and the UK are leading examples of how fiscal policies can accelerate fleet electrification. Belgium’s tax reforms have successfully phased out depreciation benefits for petrol and diesel corporate cars, creating a strong incentive for companies to switch to EVs.

However, the new Arizona government is putting the brakes on the phasing out of plug-in hybrid vehicles, which is actually creating more uncertainty for companies and delaying the EV transition.

Experts believe that PHEVs don’t represent a solution, especially with CSRD reporting (CO2 emissions) becoming obligatory for companies. These reports are vital to securing a company’s operations and continued financing.

The approach under the previous Vivaldi government has led to corporate fleets in Belgium achieving an electrification rate of over 41%, far surpassing the private market. Similarly, the UK has adopted stringent benefit-in-kind taxation policies for fossil fuel-powered company cars, further encouraging fleet electrification. These cases highlight the potential effectiveness of targeted fiscal measures.

Strong foothold for European car makers

In other European countries, corporate fleets have slowly transitioned to electric. In key markets such as Germany and France, electrification lags. This trend persists even though European automakers enjoy a stronger foothold in the corporate segment, with 62% of their total sales coming from corporate buyers compared to 49% for non-EU brands.

The EC’s proposed regulation is expected to be tabled by early 2026 and could replace slower-moving directives with binding targets. Industry analysts suggest that such a regulation would provide much-needed market predictability, encouraging automakers to invest further in European EV production and supply chains.

The final draft will be unveiled at the beginning of March, and it will be unclear whether the recommendations from T&E will be included.