Study: ‘Making Belgium climate-neutral will cost 2% of GDP’

How can Belgium become climate-neutral by 2050 without driving industry out? Research institute VITO/EnergyVille formulated an answer: “The most expensive option is to do nothing.”

Vito/EnergyVille launched a study and joined forces with several major players in the Belgian energy market: grid operators Elia and Fluxys, major consumers such as BASF and ArcelorMittal, and producer Luminus. With this study, scientists map the costs of climate damage caused by companies for the first time.

PATHS2050 Coalition

The newly established PATHS2050 Coalition outlined several possible pathways for policymakers and industry that are both “feasible and efficient” to navigate this complex and urgent transition. The study resulted in three scenarios for achieving climate neutrality by 2050 while maintaining a resilient industry. 

The first scenario mainly involves expanding wind energy on land, off our coast, and elsewhere in the North Sea in combination with expanding small modular nuclear reactors.

The second scenario provides for constructing a new large nuclear power plant in combination with smaller reactors. And the last scenario relies mainly on the import of electricity and green molecules such as hydrogen. 

Recommendations

The study also proposes several recommendations, such as banning fuel oil boilers, using renewable energy, and switching to electric driving. According to the researchers, this action must start today. “The most expensive option is to do nothing. We must start immediately.”

It is recommended that the number of electric vehicles be increased to 2 million by 2030, and that we switch to fully electric driving by 2040. By 2040, one gigawatt of solar panels should be added annually. In the record year of 2023, 1.3 gigawatts of capacity were installed. However, there is room for 100 gigawatts of capacity on our roofs,” says Pieter Lodewijks, program manager at VITO/EnergyVille.

CO2 storage

The expansion of CO2 storage is important in the three scenarios. “In the short term, we need to capture that CO2, liquefy it, and transport it in small volumes by ship to empty gas fields. In the long term, we need a CO2 pipeline network.”

All of this costs money. By 2050, the cost of all the interventions to achieve climate neutrality will be around 12 billion euros annually, or “around 2% of our current GDP (Gross Domestic Product),” concludes Lodewijks.