It’s no secret that the global car industry is undergoing a power shift, but the numbers suggest that the United States are more severely on the back foot than generally assumed. A new benchmark report by Chinese manufacturing network RapidDirect places the U.S. a distant fifth among the world’s top automotive producers—well behind China, Germany, Japan and South Korea. And it’s not only in raw output but also in automation, efficiency, and export.
While global auto sales are forecast to inch upwards to 89.6 million units in 2025—a 1.7% increase according to S&P Global Mobility—the broader picture for American manufacturing is far less encouraging. China is expected to produce 27.5 million vehicles next year, nearly a third of the world’s output. The U.S., by contrast, is forecast to make just 1.4 million. It’s a staggering gulf that reflects deeper structural problems in the American industry. China produced 17 times more than the United States.
Asia is all about volume
Equally stark is China’s role as the world’s leading car exporter. In 2024, it shipped nearly 5.9 million vehicles abroad, overtaking traditional export powerhouses Germany and Japan. Meanwhile, the U.S.—home to a record 231 car brands—averages a meagre 6,200 vehicles per brand. Japan produces 310,000 units per company; South Korea nearly 385,000. Germany averages over 35,000 vehicles per brand, but those lower numbers are explained by its profile of a premium-heavy car industry.
The report tells a story of fragmentation versus focus. “The U.S. auto industry’s fragmentation is now its greatest weakness,” said Leon Huang, CEO of RapidDirect. “While global competitors are scaling production, centralising supply chains and ramping up automation, the U.S. is spreading resources across too many players with too little output.”
It’s a reality that may be driving Washington’s emerging trade strategy. President-elect Donald Trump is expected to reintroduce universal tariffs, including a 30% levy on Chinese imports and a 10% blanket rate for most others. S&P Global warns these policies could shake an already uncertain market, potentially prompting retaliatory action while doing little to fix America’s underlying production woes. U.S. vehicle sales are expected to see only a modest bump—up 1.2% to 16.2 million in 2025.
Robots per workers
Automation remains a flashpoint. South Korea leads globally with more than 1,000 robots per 10,000 manufacturing workers. Germany and Japan follow closely. The U.S. trails with just 295, while China has surpassed 470 and is closing in on 600, allowing it to scale up quickly and shift towards more technologically advanced production.
Electrification is another battleground. Battery electric vehicles (BEVs) are set to account for nearly 17% of all light vehicle sales worldwide in 2025, with China at the forefront. Nearly 30% of passenger car sales in China are expected to be electric next year, buoyed by subsidies, tax breaks, and dominance in battery manufacturing. The U.S. is forecast to reach just 11.2% BEV share, with policy uncertainty hanging over federal EV incentives, and the future of the Inflation Reduction Act.
Production shift tells half the story
“2025 is shaping up to be ultra-challenging,” said Colin Couchman, executive director of forecasting at S&P Global Mobility. “The combination of uneven consumer confidence, tariff uncertainty and wavering EV support will keep U.S. manufacturers on unstable footing.”
Even as global carmakers like Audi and Hyundai shift production to the U.S. to avoid tariffs, the underlying concerns remain. RapidDirect’s report suggests that without bold reform in automation, production strategy and industrial policy, America may continue to fall behind—while China charges ahead into a new era of automotive dominance.
