Airlines have become slightly less optimistic about 2025. They now expect to carry just under five billion passengers, down from an earlier forecast of 5.22 billion, and generate $979 billion in revenue instead of the previously projected $1,000 billion.
This update was shared by IATA, the global airline industry association, during its annual general meeting in New Delhi. The downward revision is partly due to the impact of ongoing trade tensions and a global economic slowdown.
$7,20 net profit per passenger
According to IATA Director General Willie Walsh, “significant uncertainties in global markets” during the first half of 2025 are behind the revised forecast. “Nevertheless, in many areas, it will still be a better year than 2024,” he noted.
One positive factor is the decline in kerosene prices—down 13% from 2024—resulting in an estimated $25 billion reduction in fuel costs. This would boost airline profit margins from 3.4% in 2024 to 3.7%, equating to a $7.20 net profit per passenger. The total net profit for the industry is now projected at $36 billion, slightly below the earlier estimate of $36.6 billion.
In addition, airlines are expected to transport 69 million tons of cargo in 2025, compared to an earlier forecast of 72.5 million tons.
Order backlog of more than 17,000 aircraft
Walsh emphasized, however, that the current profit margin remains fragile and could be threatened by new fees, taxes, or disruptions in travel demand. Another pressing issue is the delayed delivery of newly ordered aircraft. Both Airbus—and especially Boeing—are still struggling to deliver on time the newer, more fuel-efficient aircraft ordered by airlines.
The backlog of aircraft orders now exceeds 17,000, a significant increase from the pre-pandemic range of 10,000 to 11,000. “The number of planned deliveries for 2025 is 26% lower than what was promised a year ago,” Walsh said. The current annual fleet renewal rate of 3% also falls well short of the typical 5% to 6%.
The IATA chief did not shy away from criticizing aircraft manufacturers. “It is simply unacceptable that manufacturers believe it could take until the end of the decade to resolve this situation,” Walsh said. According to him, delayed deliveries are leading to an increase in the average fleet age—from 13 to 15 years—which in turn hampers progress in energy efficiency, much like the limited production of sustainable aviation fuel SAF.
Walsh also referenced Airbus’s recent revision of its timeline for introducing a hydrogen-powered aircraft. Originally slated for 2035, the launch is now expected between 2040 and 2045.
