In its annual report, a team of more than 60 international scientists has compiled a comprehensive picture of the current state of the climate. Together, they warn that the world is in “crunch time” to avoid higher levels of warming beyond the key threshold of 1.5 degrees Celsius.
The group examined the amount of planet-heating carbon dioxide (CO2) the world can release into the atmosphere in the coming years while limiting warming to the UN target of 1.5°C.
Catastrophic rise
Nearly 200 countries agreed to limit global temperature rises to 1.5°C. Still, countries have continued to burn record amounts of coal, oil, and gas, and have also cut down carbon-rich forests, leaving the international goal in peril.
Scientists have been warning for some time that breaching the 1.5°C limit is increasingly unavoidable, as emissions from the burning of fossil fuels continue to rise. Currently, the world is on track for 2.7°C of global heating, which would be a truly catastrophic rise.
‘Carbon budget’
The report estimates that the remaining ‘carbon budget’ for a 1.5°C target is 130 billion tons of CO2 from the beginning of 2025, if the world is to have a 50% chance of staying within the threshold.
However, this budget will be exhausted in less than three years at current levels of CO2 emissions, according to findings published on Wednesday night in the journal Earth System Science Data.
Irreversible changes
This means that without drastic cuts to emissions, the world will be unable to prevent warming from surpassing the dangerous threshold, which will lead to an increase in extreme weather events, climate-related disasters, and a higher risk of triggering irreversible changes.
Professor Joeri Rogelj, research director at the Grantham Institute: “There is a very high chance that we will reach and even exceed 1.5°C and even higher levels of warming.”
‘Wrong direction’
Piers Forster, professor of Climate Physics at the University of Leeds: “The report highlights how climate policies and pace of climate action are not keeping up with what’s needed to address the ever-growing impacts.” […] “Things are all moving in the wrong direction. Emissions have increased year on year since the 2021 report, remaining at all-time highs.”
This year’s update covers key climate system indicators, including greenhouse gas emissions and concentrations, Earth’s energy imbalance, human-induced climate change, remaining carbon budgets, and maximum land surface temperatures. But for the first time, the annual update also included sea-level rise and global land precipitation.
‘Every small increase matters’
The report found that human activities were affecting the Earth’s energy balance, with the oceans storing about 91% of the excess heat, driving detrimental changes in every component of the climate system, including sea level rise, ocean warming, ice loss, and permafrost thawing.
“Every small increase in warming matters, leading to more frequent, more intense weather extremes,” Professor Rogelj concluded. “Emissions over the next decade will determine how soon and how fast 1.5°C of warming is reached. They need to be swiftly reduced to meet the climate goals of the Paris Agreement.”
