Frédéric Dunon, the CEO of the high-voltage grid operator Elia, warns that if the government does not intervene, the electricity supply will be compromised by 2035. “A clear energy strategy is urgently needed,” he says. “We need to know which energy mix we want: do we want more offshore wind energy, more nuclear energy, and by when?”
A study has been conducted to estimate the additional production capacity needed to ensure a continuous electricity supply. If no new power stations are built, the shortage could rise to more than 6 gigawatts in the worst-case scenario, equivalent to the historic park of seven Belgian nuclear power stations.
Urgency of the situation
Dunon must now make the urgency of the situation clear to the government. He is particularly seeking a long-term vision for energy supply, as outlined in the federal government’s coalition agreement.
Dunon sees no problem in ensuring the security of supply for the next five years. However, after 2030, the need for additional capacity is expected to increase rapidly, as is the electricity demand. Indeed, from the end of 2035, when the planned life extension of the Doel 4 and Tihange 3 nuclear power stations comes to an end, there will be a shortage of several gigawatts.’
Structural solutions
Structural solutions will need to be found, and the government must establish guidelines for this. Frédéric Dunon: “Are we going for additional nuclear extensions? Will Doel 4 and Tihange 3 continue to operate for twenty years instead of ten? Or will we focus on energy conservation and demand reduction? Will we go for additional cables to exchange electricity with other countries, or will we connect more wind energy at sea in the future?”
In the first few years, the shortage will be addressed through demand management, battery storage, and the deployment of smaller gas-fired peak power stations. But if no additional measures are taken by 2035, there will be a need that will have to be met by new gas-fired power stations.
“And if the government wants to avoid gas-fired power stations, it must now quickly work on additional nuclear extensions. There is still time. But these are long-term projects, so there is a rush to start planning,” concludes Dunon.
Priorities
Elia has been warning for at least ten years that electricity consumption will increase, a prediction that has never come true until now.
Today, Belgium’s total electricity consumption is approximately 80 terawatt-hours per year. However, numerous industrial projects are poised to transition from fossil fuels to electricity, and we are also witnessing a significantly faster influx of battery parks, fast chargers, and data centers. The network cannot accommodate everything, so there is a need for a real industrial policy that sets priorities.
