Global biofuels emit 16% more CO2 than the fossil fuels they replace, due to the indirect impacts of farming and deforestation, a new Cerulogy report on behalf of T&E shows. By 2030, biofuels are projected to emit 70 Mt CO₂e more than the fossil fuels they replace, equivalent to the annual emissions of almost 30 million diesel cars.
Today, growing crops to be burned as fuel uses up 32 million hectares of land – roughly the size of Italy – to meet just 4% of global transport energy demand. By 2030, this is expected to increase by 60% to 52 million hectares, equivalent to the size of France.
Massive waste of land
This is a massive waste of land, T&E says. Using just 3% of the same land for solar would produce the same amount of energy, the study explains. As electric vehicles are much more efficient than fossil fuel cars, 3% of solar energy would be enough to power close to a third of the world’s current car fleet.
Biofuels tend to get credited with being “carbon neutral” because the CO₂ released when they burn is, in theory, reabsorbed by the feedstock plants as they grow. However, in practice, life-cycle emissions, including indirect effects, can make them worse than those from fossil fuels.
‘Terrible climate solution’
Cian Delaney, biofuels campaigner at T&E: “Biofuels are a terrible climate solution and a staggering waste of land, food, and millions in subsidies. Ensuring a sustainable balance between agriculture and nature is essential to tackling the climate crisis, and burning crops for fuel only pushes us further in the wrong direction. […] Governments around the world must prioritise renewables over crop biofuels.”
In 2023, the biofuel industry consumed approximately 150 million tons of corn and 120 million tons of sugarcane and sugar beets. In total, the equivalent of 100 million bottles of vegetable oil are burned in cars every day, meaning that a fifth of the entire vegetable oil supply is never even used for food. The energy in all these feedstocks could meet the minimum calorific requirements of up to 1.3 billion people.
COP30 in Brazil
T&E’s analysis shows that biofuel crops require significant amounts of freshwater. Driving a car 100 km on first-generation biofuels would need, on average, close to 3,000 liters of water. As climate change puts increasing pressure on water supplies, this could be a disaster, warns T&E.
With biofuel demand projected to rise by at least 40% by 2030, T&E urges global leaders meeting in Brazil for COP30 to better safeguard against biofuels that contribute to land clearance and deforestation when making climate policies. The organization pleads for limiting the expansion of a climate solution that is doing more harm than good.
Blending percentages
Many countries mandate blending percentages of biofuels (e.g., ethanol in gasoline, biodiesel in diesel). Countries with large agricultural sectors are often significant users (e.g., the US, Brazil, and EU member states).
There is growing interest in sustainable aviation fuels (SAFs) and biofuels (or bio-derived alternatives) in the shipping industry, although current volumes are still small. T&E warns that scaling biofuel use in shipping could worsen climate outcomes if feedstocks are unsustainable.
Belgium is a relatively modest biofuels user and producer compared to some larger countries, and much of its energy from “bioenergy” comes from solid biomass, waste, and other sources. According to an IEA report, approximately 56% of the total bioenergy in Belgium comes from solid biofuels, while the rest is derived from biodiesel, bioethanol, biogas, and biomass waste.
