The head of Lufthansa does not believe the aviation sector will achieve net-zero CO2 emissions by 2050. CEO Carsten Spohr attributes this to the slow development of technology and the increased availability of more sustainable aircraft fuels.
The Lufthansa Group has set itself ambitious climate protection goals. The company aims to achieve a neutral CO2 balance by 2050. By 2030, the German aviation group aims to halve its net CO2 emissions compared to 2019 through reduction and compensation measures. But judging by Spohr’s skepticism, this will not be possible.
Little progress, SAF volumes are too slow.
According to Spohr, technology for reducing CO2 emissions from aviation is making very little progress. “The large Airbus factories in Toulouse and the large Boeing factory in Seattle have no aircraft in production or even in the planning stage that would enable us to take the next big technological step in any way,” says Spohr.
Regarding more sustainable aircraft fuels, such as SAFs, he argues that their production is increasing much more slowly than desired and is far too expensive, an argument that many people and organizations in the aviation sector have raised.
In addition, he believes it would be a significant problem for European airlines if they were forced to use more sustainable aircraft fuels while their competitors from other parts of the world were not. The European Union aims to have 70% of the aviation fuels in Europe be sustainable by 2050.
According to Spohr, this could lead airlines to relocate their operations to areas with more favorable regulations or fuel supplies.
Hydrogen-powered aircraft not for tomorrow
Airbus and other aerospace firms have joined statements affirming the industry’s commitment to net zero by 2050, although that is, of course, no guarantee. For example, they are also encountering realistic delays. Notably, Airbus recently announced a postponement of its hydrogen-aircraft development program, deferring its earlier 2035 ambition by five to ten years.
The company also notes that a large portion of the current global fleet is older and less efficient, with replacement cycles being slow. Most aircraft have long service lives, ranging from 20 to more than 30 years. So, even if new technology succeeds, there is inertia, and even if new zero-carbon designs emerge, many older, carbon-intensive planes will still be flying for decades, thereby slowing fleet-wide decarbonization.
Trump factor
Boeing has committed to making its current and future aircraft 100% SAF-capable by 2030, and has invested in partnerships to scale SAF and e-fuel production. However, Boeing tends to take a more conservative approach in general.
The emphasis is generally on incremental improvements and scaling up fuels with lower carbon emissions, rather than relying heavily on radical new propulsions in the short term.
Furthermore, Trump’s new policy clearly opposes climate-related regulations. The US president has announced and partially implemented his intention to roll back parts of the Inflation Reduction Act, including subsidies for sustainable fuels. For example, the SAF tax credit, up to $1,75 per gallon of sustainable fuel and a key measure to make production profitable, is under discussion and may be abolished.
Trump’s priority is “drill, baby, drill”: more domestic oil and gas production and lower energy prices. This gives airlines cheap kerosene, which further reduces the incentive to switch to SAF.
The new administration is also working to roll back EPA rules (Environmental Protection Agency) on aircraft emissions. This means that aircraft manufacturers such as Boeing and airlines will be less obligated to achieve or report emission reductions.
And while under Biden, billions in support were allocated to R&D projects related to electric aircraft, hydrogen technology, and SAF production through Department of Energy and FAA grants, under Trump, those funds will be significantly reduced or reallocated to “strategic industries” such as defense or fossil fuels.
Finally, the aviation sector is projected to grow strongly, with passenger numbers expected to rise in emerging economies. In other words, people will fly more rather than less, which means that it will inevitably be difficult to reduce the sector’s CO2 emissions
