Thanks to the Paris Climate Agreement, our planet is no longer heading toward a catastrophic 4 degrees of warming, but is still facing an additional 2.6 degrees Celsius. That is what climate specialists from the World Weather Attribution and Climate Central have calculated.
Ten years ago, the Paris Climate Agreement was signed. World leaders pledged to keep global warming well below 2 degrees Celsius, and preferably 1.5 degrees, compared to the period 1850-1900.
‘Something is shifting’
In those ten years, we’ve made little progress. We continue to emit record amounts of greenhouse gases despite numerous promises to reduce emissions. At the same time, the decision-making mechanism at COPs is also increasingly under fire, as was the case last year in Azerbaijan.
As a result, the climate outlook remains poor, and climate scientists continue to call for a rapid reduction in emissions year after year. One week before the next climate summit, in Belém (Brazil), the question arises: what use are COPs anymore?
Yet, something is definitely shifting. This is evident even 10 years after Paris, and it’s a significant achievement in a matter where you have to get the whole world on board.
‘Climate change has a global cause’
While the world was still on track for a 4-degree Celsius warming relative to the pre-industrial period (1850-1900) before Paris, it is currently ‘only’ 2.6 degrees. More concretely, this means that in that case, there will not be an additional 114 warm days each year, but ‘only’ half (57), on average. In Belgium, that would mean 66 extra hot days per year, but with 4 degrees of warming, that would be 94.
The WWA and Climate Central report further indicates that extreme heat waves will increase, which will cost a lot of money.
Still, the Paris climate summit and the subsequent COPs proved to be a good thing, says VUB climate scientist Wim Thiery. “Together, they were able to avoid a worst-case scenario. Climate change has a global cause, so it must be discussed globally. And the COPs are the only mechanism for doing so.”
On the other hand, Thiery understands the criticism. Action has been taken, but far too little. “We can only achieve the long-term goal if we remove CO2 from the air on a massive scale…”
Ambitious goals
In the meantime, countries are preparing for the next climate summit, and some are very ambitious. The British, for example, are coming up with the biggest plans. They promise to reduce their emissions by 81 percent by 2035 compared to 1990 levels—the most ambitious target in the world.
Spain, which has been severely affected by drought on the one hand and flooding on the other, has announced that it will invest tens of billions of euros in additional climate policy, particularly in clean energy.
Denmark is the European climate leader in any case – no country performs better on climate policy in Europe, and the world. Sweden and Finland are also considered climate leaders. Their climate policies rely largely on their vast forests. These can absorb massive amounts of CO2, which could ensure rapid climate neutrality.
Finland has already pledged to be climate-neutral by 2035, fifteen years ahead of the EU. But due to the war in Ukraine and the loss of Russian timber, the country is now logging more of its own forests. “So, at the moment, Finnish forests emit more than they absorb, and the country is no longer on track to meet its 2035 target.
Transport and land use
Belgium, like the entire European Union, aims to be climate neutral by 2050. Since 1990, greenhouse gas emissions have decreased by 31 percent, but this is too slow. The pace should be 1.7 to 2 times faster than it was over the past 10 years. Four major sectors (industry, energy transformation, buildings, and agriculture) are evolving in the right direction, but still too slowly.
According to the second edition of the federal Climate Transition Barometer, developments in transport remain “particularly worrying,” and land use is heading in the wrong direction. Too much is still being paved or built upon, and too much grassland is being converted into agricultural land.
30th UN Climate Change Conference
The 30th United Nations Climate Change Conference, or COP30, will open following Monday in Belém (10 to 21 November), Brazil, against a backdrop of acute geopolitical tensions but above all in a context of absolute climate and environmental emergency.
Record temperatures and atmospheric CO2 concentrations follow one another month after month, year after year. 2024 was the warmest year globally and the first calendar year to exceed the 1.5°C warming threshold above pre-industrial levels.
As an unpleasant reminder, a few days before the opening of COP30, Hurricane Melissa caused devastation in the Caribbean, causing some fifty deaths and billions of dollars in damage.
The hurricane, the most powerful to make landfall in 90 years when it hit Jamaica as a Category 5 storm with winds of nearly 300 km/h, has been made four times more likely by human-caused climate change, according to a study published by scientists at Imperial College London.
