{"id":185687,"date":"2026-05-04T12:20:28","date_gmt":"2026-05-04T10:20:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/newmobility.news\/?p=185687"},"modified":"2026-05-04T11:13:01","modified_gmt":"2026-05-04T09:13:01","slug":"ipcc-scraps-worst-case-scenario-global-warming-at-most-3-5c-by-2100","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/newmobility.news\/fr\/2026\/05\/04\/ipcc-scraps-worst-case-scenario-global-warming-at-most-3-5c-by-2100\/","title":{"rendered":"Le GIEC abandonne le sc\u00e9nario le plus pessimiste : le r\u00e9chauffement de la plan\u00e8te ne d\u00e9passera pas 3,5 \u00b0C d'ici \u00e0 2100"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Le groupe d'experts intergouvernemental sur l'\u00e9volution du climat (GIEC) des Nations unies\u00a0<span class=\"Y2IQFc\" lang=\"en\">abandonne ses pr\u00e9visions les plus sombres : 4 \u00e0 6 degr\u00e9s de r\u00e9chauffement climatique d'ici<\/span><span class=\"Y2IQFc\" lang=\"en\"> 2100. <\/span><span class=\"Y2IQFc\" lang=\"en\">Les sc\u00e9narios catastrophes et les reportages inqui\u00e9tants des m\u00e9dias sur l'avenir du climat s'av\u00e8rent trop sombres. <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span class=\"Y2IQFc\" lang=\"en\">Le r\u00e9chauffement extr\u00eame de la plan\u00e8te ne devrait pas progresser aussi rapidement, et les sombres pr\u00e9visions selon lesquelles le niveau des mers s'\u00e9l\u00e8vera de plus d'un m\u00e8tre d'ici \u00e0 2100 sont \u00e9galement trop pessimistes.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span class=\"Y2IQFc\" lang=\"en\">Cela ne signifie pas que tout va bien ou que les d\u00e9g\u00e2ts sont mineurs, souligne Detlef van Vuuren, chercheur en \u00e9missions et auteur des nouveaux sc\u00e9narios du GIEC.<\/span><\/p>\n<h4>\u2018Impossible <span class=\"Y2IQFc\" lang=\"en\">pour maintenir le r\u00e9chauffement en dessous de 1,5 degr\u00e9 Celsius\u2019.\u2019<\/span><\/h4>\n<p><span class=\"Y2IQFc\" lang=\"en\">Dans le nouveau sc\u00e9nario le plus sombre, la temp\u00e9rature de la Terre augmente d'environ 3,5 degr\u00e9s Celsius par rapport aux niveaux pr\u00e9industriels d'ici \u00e0 2100, soit bien plus que les 2 degr\u00e9s Celsius consid\u00e9r\u00e9s comme \u2018s\u00fbrs\u2019. <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span class=\"Y2IQFc\" lang=\"en\">\u201cEt si nous ne faisons pas assez d'efforts pour r\u00e9duire les \u00e9missions de gaz \u00e0 effet de serre, nous finirons in\u00e9vitablement par obtenir des valeurs plus \u00e9lev\u00e9es. Cela arrive simplement plus tard\u201d, explique M. van Vuuren.\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"Y2IQFc\" lang=\"en\">L'expert en climatologie souligne qu'il n'est plus possible de maintenir le r\u00e9chauffement en dessous de 1,5 degr\u00e9 Celsius, comme pr\u00e9vu.<\/span><\/p>\n<h4>Sc\u00e9nario catastrophique<\/h4>\n<p><span class=\"Y2IQFc\" lang=\"en\">Le climatologue Zeke Hausfather (Berkeley Earth) souligne \u00e9galement dans la revue Nature que \u201ctant que les \u00e9missions resteront sup\u00e9rieures \u00e0 z\u00e9ro, la Terre continuera \u00e0 se r\u00e9chauffer. Et le taux de r\u00e9chauffement qui est maintenant moins r\u00e9aliste pour 2100 reste plausible pour 2150 et au-del\u00e0\u201d.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span class=\"Y2IQFc\" lang=\"en\">L'ancien sc\u00e9nario catastrophe, \u00e9labor\u00e9 il y a quinze ans, pr\u00e9voyait un monde \u00e0 peine viable, <\/span><span class=\"Y2IQFc\" lang=\"en\">mais se mettrait plut\u00f4t \u00e0 br\u00fbler du charbon \u00e0 un rythme de plus en plus rapide. Il y aurait \u00e9galement peu d'innovation et la population mondiale augmenterait plus qu'elle ne le fait actuellement.<\/span><\/p>\n<h4>\u2018Seulement 2,5 degr\u00e9s\u2019<\/h4>\n<p><span class=\"Y2IQFc\" lang=\"en\">Un sc\u00e9nario catastrophe, en d'autres termes, \u201csi nous n'agissons pas\u201d. Mais heureusement, le monde a \u00e9volu\u00e9. Les \u00e9nergies renouvelables sont rapidement devenues moins ch\u00e8res. Et, bien qu'encore insuffisante, la politique climatique existe bel et bien.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span class=\"Y2IQFc\" lang=\"en\">Selon l'ancien sc\u00e9nario catastrophe, la temp\u00e9rature en 2100 se situerait entre 3,3 et 5,7 degr\u00e9s. Toutefois, selon le Programme des Nations unies pour l'environnement (PNUE), avec les politiques actuelles, le monde ne se dirige vers \u2018que\u2019 2,6 degr\u00e9s.<\/span><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) of the United Nations\u00a0scraps its gloomiest forecast: 4 to 6 degrees of global warming by 2100. The doomsday scenarios and ominous media reports about the future of the climate prove too bleak. Extreme global warming is not expected to progress that quickly, and the gloomy forecasts of sea [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":175,"featured_media":185704,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"_wpas_customize_per_network":false},"categories":[14496,29,4],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-185687","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-climate","category-environment","category-top-stories-today"],"acf":[],"featured_image_urls_v2":{"full":["https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/newmobility.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/Scherm%C2%ADafbeelding-2026-05-04-om-10.06.47.png?fit=853%2C624&ssl=1",853,624,false],"thumbnail":["https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/newmobility.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/Scherm%C2%ADafbeelding-2026-05-04-om-10.06.47.png?resize=150%2C150&ssl=1",150,150,true],"medium":["https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/newmobility.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/Scherm%C2%ADafbeelding-2026-05-04-om-10.06.47.png?fit=300%2C219&ssl=1",300,219,true],"medium_large":["https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/newmobility.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/Scherm%C2%ADafbeelding-2026-05-04-om-10.06.47.png?fit=640%2C468&ssl=1",640,468,true],"large":["https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/newmobility.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/Scherm%C2%ADafbeelding-2026-05-04-om-10.06.47.png?fit=640%2C468&ssl=1",640,468,true],"1536x1536":["https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/newmobility.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/Scherm%C2%ADafbeelding-2026-05-04-om-10.06.47.png?fit=853%2C624&ssl=1",853,624,true],"2048x2048":["https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/newmobility.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/Scherm%C2%ADafbeelding-2026-05-04-om-10.06.47.png?fit=853%2C624&ssl=1",853,624,true],"trp-custom-language-flag":["https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/newmobility.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/Scherm%C2%ADafbeelding-2026-05-04-om-10.06.47.png?fit=16%2C12&ssl=1",16,12,true],"related-thumb":["https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/newmobility.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/Scherm%C2%ADafbeelding-2026-05-04-om-10.06.47.png?resize=640%2C480&ssl=1",640,480,true],"gform-image-choice-sm":["https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/newmobility.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/Scherm%C2%ADafbeelding-2026-05-04-om-10.06.47.png?resize=300%2C300&ssl=1",300,300,true],"gform-image-choice-md":["https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/newmobility.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/Scherm%C2%ADafbeelding-2026-05-04-om-10.06.47.png?resize=400%2C400&ssl=1",400,400,true],"gform-image-choice-lg":["https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/newmobility.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/Scherm%C2%ADafbeelding-2026-05-04-om-10.06.47.png?resize=600%2C600&ssl=1",600,600,true],"mailchimp":["https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/newmobility.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/Scherm%C2%ADafbeelding-2026-05-04-om-10.06.47.png?fit=560%2C410&ssl=1",560,410,true],"unipress-phone":["https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/newmobility.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/Scherm%C2%ADafbeelding-2026-05-04-om-10.06.47.png?resize=640%2C100&ssl=1",640,100,true],"unipress-tablet":["https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/newmobility.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/Scherm%C2%ADafbeelding-2026-05-04-om-10.06.47.png?resize=853%2C240&ssl=1",853,240,true],"unipress-tablet-portrait":["https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/newmobility.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/Scherm%C2%ADafbeelding-2026-05-04-om-10.06.47.png?resize=853%2C180&ssl=1",853,180,true],"unipress-tablet-landscape":["https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/newmobility.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/Scherm%C2%ADafbeelding-2026-05-04-om-10.06.47.png?resize=853%2C180&ssl=1",853,180,true],"unipress-smartphone":["https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/newmobility.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/Scherm%C2%ADafbeelding-2026-05-04-om-10.06.47.png?resize=853%2C168&ssl=1",853,168,true],"unipress-wide-screen":["https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/newmobility.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/Scherm%C2%ADafbeelding-2026-05-04-om-10.06.47.png?resize=853%2C180&ssl=1",853,180,true]},"post_excerpt_stackable_v2":"<p>The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) of the United Nations\u00a0scraps its gloomiest forecast: 4 to 6 degrees of global warming by 2100. The doomsday scenarios and ominous media reports about the future of the climate prove too bleak. Extreme global warming is not expected to progress that quickly, and the gloomy forecasts of sea levels being more than a meter higher by 2100 are also too pessimistic. That does not mean that nothing is wrong, or that the damage is minor, emphasizes emissions researcher Detlef van Vuuren, author of the new IPCC scenarios. &#8216;Impossible to keep warming below 1.5&hellip;<\/p>\n","category_list_v2":"<a href=\"https:\/\/newmobility.news\/fr\/category\/climate\/\" rel=\"category tag\">Climate<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/newmobility.news\/fr\/category\/environment\/\" rel=\"category tag\">Environment<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/newmobility.news\/fr\/category\/top-stories-today\/\" rel=\"category tag\">Top Stories Today<\/a>","author_info_v2":{"name":"Hilde Van Raemdonck","url":"https:\/\/newmobility.news\/fr\/author\/hilde-van-raemdonck\/"},"comments_num_v2":"0 comments","yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>IPCC scraps worst-case scenario: global warming at most 3.5\u00b0C by 2100 - newmobility.news<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/newmobility.news\/fr\/2026\/05\/04\/ipcc-scraps-worst-case-scenario-global-warming-at-most-3-5c-by-2100\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"IPCC scraps worst-case scenario: global warming at most 3.5\u00b0C by 2100 - newmobility.news\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) of the United Nations\u00a0scraps its gloomiest forecast: 4 to 6 degrees of global warming by 2100. 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The doomsday scenarios and ominous media reports about the future of the climate prove too bleak. Extreme global warming is not expected to progress that quickly, and the gloomy forecasts of sea [&hellip;]","og_url":"https:\/\/newmobility.news\/fr\/2026\/05\/04\/ipcc-scraps-worst-case-scenario-global-warming-at-most-3-5c-by-2100\/","og_site_name":"newmobility.news","article_publisher":"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/search\/top\/?q=newmobility.news","article_published_time":"2026-05-04T10:20:28+00:00","og_image":[{"width":853,"height":624,"url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/newmobility.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/Scherm%C2%ADafbeelding-2026-05-04-om-10.06.47.png?fit=853%2C624&ssl=1","type":"image\/png"}],"author":"Hilde Van Raemdonck","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_creator":"@jorisvry","twitter_site":"@jorisvry","twitter_misc":{"\u00c9crit par":"Hilde Van Raemdonck","Dur\u00e9e de lecture est.":"2 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