{"id":186575,"date":"2026-05-21T22:34:33","date_gmt":"2026-05-21T20:34:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/newmobility.news\/?p=186575"},"modified":"2026-05-21T22:34:33","modified_gmt":"2026-05-21T20:34:33","slug":"the-point-of-no-return-ev-adoption-in-europe-and-china-can-no-longer-be-undone","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/newmobility.news\/fr\/2026\/05\/21\/the-point-of-no-return-ev-adoption-in-europe-and-china-can-no-longer-be-undone\/","title":{"rendered":"Le point de non-retour : L'adoption des VE en Europe et en Chine ne peut plus \u00eatre annul\u00e9e"},"content":{"rendered":"

Une nouvelle \u00e9tude publi\u00e9e dans la revue Nature Communications met en \u00e9vidence ce que les climatologues appellent un \u201cpoint de basculement positif en cascade\u201d sur certains march\u00e9s des v\u00e9hicules \u00e9lectriques. L'Europe et la Chine ont d\u00e9sormais franchi un seuil d\u00e9cisif. L'abandon des voitures \u00e0 moteur \u00e0 combustion s'est impos\u00e9 de lui-m\u00eame.<\/p>\n

Une \u00e9quipe de recherche de l'universit\u00e9 d'Exeter a publi\u00e9 ce qui pourrait \u00eatre l'une des \u00e9tudes les plus influentes de l'histoire r\u00e9cente de la mobilit\u00e9 : une analyse \u00e9valu\u00e9e par des pairs d\u00e9montrant que l'adoption des v\u00e9hicules \u00e9lectriques en Europe et en Chine a franchi un point de basculement socio-technique. Pass\u00e9 ce seuil, le d\u00e9clin du moteur \u00e0 combustible fossile devient effectivement irr\u00e9versible.<\/p>\n

L'article, intitul\u00e9 \u201cEvidence of a cascading positive tipping point towards electric vehicles\u201d, s'appuie sur des donn\u00e9es de ventes mondiales couvrant la p\u00e9riode 2016-2023 dans 32 pays.<\/p>\n

Ce que les donn\u00e9es montrent<\/b><\/h4>\n

Les ventes de VE n'ont pas seulement augment\u00e9, mais elles ont connu une croissance exponentielle. Sur l'ensemble des march\u00e9s \u00e9tudi\u00e9s, le parc de v\u00e9hicules \u00e9lectriques et hybrides rechargeables a doubl\u00e9 environ tous les ans et demi. Mais il existe des diff\u00e9rences r\u00e9gionales. En Chine, le temps de doublement n'\u00e9tait que de 12 mois ; dans l'UE, il \u00e9tait de 1,3 an.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Dans le m\u00eame temps, les ventes de voitures traditionnelles ont entam\u00e9 un d\u00e9clin structurel vers 2019, dont elles ne se sont jamais remises. Il est int\u00e9ressant de noter que les chercheurs ont appliqu\u00e9 des mod\u00e8les statistiques comparables \u00e0 ceux utilis\u00e9s en climatologie. Ils tentent ainsi d'identifier les \u201csignaux d'alerte pr\u00e9coce\u201d qui pr\u00e9c\u00e8dent toujours un \u00e9v\u00e9nement de basculement. Ils ont trouv\u00e9 exactement ces mod\u00e8les dans les donn\u00e9es sur les parts de march\u00e9 des v\u00e9hicules conventionnels en Europe et en Chine juste avant la pand\u00e9mie. Cela co\u00efncide avec le moment o\u00f9 le mod\u00e8le Y de Tesla est entr\u00e9 sur le march\u00e9, devenant bient\u00f4t la voiture la plus vendue au monde, et avec le moment o\u00f9 les constructeurs allemands de voitures traditionnelles sont entr\u00e9s s\u00e9rieusement sur le march\u00e9 des VE.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Le professeur Tim Lenton, l'un des principaux auteurs de l'\u00e9tude, explique l'importance du rapport : \u201dNous montrons, pour la premi\u00e8re fois dans les donn\u00e9es du march\u00e9, des signaux d'opportunit\u00e9 pr\u00e9coces avant un point de basculement positif o\u00f9 l'adoption des VE - et le d\u00e9clin des voitures \u00e0 carburant fossile - devient auto-propuls\u00e9e.\u201d<\/p>\n

Pourquoi le ph\u00e9nom\u00e8ne s'auto-renforce-t-il ?<\/b><\/h4>\n

Le point de basculement n'est pas simplement une question de volume de ventes. Il s'agit de boucles de r\u00e9troaction interd\u00e9pendantes. Un exemple : la vari\u00e9t\u00e9 des mod\u00e8les de VE s'est fortement d\u00e9velopp\u00e9e alors que la vari\u00e9t\u00e9 des nouveaux v\u00e9hicules \u00e0 combustion propos\u00e9s s'est, au contraire, contract\u00e9e.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Les attentes des consommateurs \u00e9voluent dans le m\u00eame sens. La parit\u00e9 \u00e0 l'achat suit une trajectoire pr\u00e9visible : l'\u00e9tude pr\u00e9voit qu'elle arrivera en Europe et en Chine entre cette ann\u00e9e et 2028, et aux \u00c9tats-Unis et en Cor\u00e9e du Sud entre 2026 et 2030.<\/p>\n

\u201cLe changement technologique peut se produire de mani\u00e8re soudaine et abrupte\u201d, a d\u00e9clar\u00e9 le professeur Jean-Fran\u00e7ois Mercure, directeur de l'Exeter Climate Policy. \u201cC'est le r\u00e9sultat de nombreux efforts politiques au cours des ann\u00e9es 2000 et 2010, qui ont permis d'atteindre une masse critique qu'il serait tr\u00e8s difficile d'inverser.\u201d<\/p>\n

La taxation du carbone ne fonctionne pas<\/b><\/h4>\n

Le document indique donc que les politiques gouvernementales sont \u00e0 l'origine de l'atteinte du point de basculement. La combinaison qui a favoris\u00e9 la transition en Europe et en Chine \u00e9tait les subventions du c\u00f4t\u00e9 de la demande et les mandats du c\u00f4t\u00e9 de l'offre, ou les exigences des fabricants en mati\u00e8re de ventes de VE qui garantissaient que des VE abordables \u00e9taient effectivement disponibles.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

De mani\u00e8re surprenante, les chercheurs ont constat\u00e9 que la taxation du carbone ou des combustibles fossiles n'avait jou\u00e9 \u201cqu'un r\u00f4le minime, voire aucun r\u00f4le\u201d. Pour les r\u00e9gulateurs qui ont fait de la tarification du carbone leur principal levier de d\u00e9carbonisation, comme l'UE, il s'agit l\u00e0 d'une constatation g\u00eanante.<\/p>\n

Toutefois, l'\u00e9tude conclut que le rythme actuel n'est pas encore \u00e0 la hauteur des engagements pris par l'Europe pour 2050 et la Chine pour 2060 en mati\u00e8re de transport sans \u00e9missions. La politique doit maintenant acc\u00e9l\u00e9rer un processus d\u00e9j\u00e0 en cours. L'acc\u00e9l\u00e9ration du d\u00e9ploiement sur les march\u00e9s pilotes a \u00e9galement des r\u00e9percussions mondiales : elle continue \u00e0 faire baisser les co\u00fbts des batteries, ce qui permet d'acc\u00e9der \u00e0 des march\u00e9s qui se situent encore en dehors de la zone de basculement.<\/p>\n

Soutenu par l'AIE<\/h4>\n

Les \u00c9tats-Unis constituent l'une de ces zones. Dans les donn\u00e9es de l'\u00e9tude, le temps de doublement aux \u00c9tats-Unis \u00e9tait de 1,7 an, ce qui est d\u00e9j\u00e0 plus lent qu'en Chine ou en Europe, et la situation s'est d\u00e9t\u00e9rior\u00e9e depuis. \u00c0 la suite du retrait des incitations f\u00e9d\u00e9rales \u00e0 l'achat en 2025, les ventes am\u00e9ricaines de VE ont chut\u00e9 de 28% en glissement annuel au premier trimestre 2026. L'\u00e9tude ne pr\u00e9tend pas que les \u00c9tats-Unis ont franchi un point de basculement, et les donn\u00e9es actuelles ne permettent gu\u00e8re d'esp\u00e9rer qu'ils le feront bient\u00f4t.<\/p>\n

Ces r\u00e9sultats universitaires arrivent en m\u00eame temps que le Global EV Outlook 2026 de l'AIE, qui pr\u00e9voit 23 millions de VE vendus dans le monde cette ann\u00e9e, ce qui repr\u00e9sente pr\u00e8s de 30% de toutes les nouvelles voitures. Les constructeurs automobiles chinois fournissent aujourd'hui 60% de tous les VE vendus dans le monde. Il est clair que sur les march\u00e9s qui se sont engag\u00e9s dans la mobilit\u00e9 \u00e9lectrique, l'\u00e9conomie a commenc\u00e9 \u00e0 \u00e9voluer ind\u00e9pendamment de l'intervention politique.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

New research in the magazine Nature Communications identifies what climate scientists call a “cascading positive tipping point” in certain EV markets. Europe and China are now past a decisive threshold. Their shift away from combustion-engined cars has become self-propelling. A research team at the University of Exeter has published what may be one of the […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":715,"featured_media":186576,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"_wpas_customize_per_network":false,"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[77160,2043,29,28,4,77165],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-186575","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-china","category-energy","category-environment","category-europe","category-top-stories-today","category-usa"],"acf":[],"featured_image_urls_v2":{"full":["https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/newmobility.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/charging.png?fit=1144%2C942&ssl=1",1144,942,false],"thumbnail":["https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/newmobility.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/charging.png?resize=150%2C150&ssl=1",150,150,true],"medium":["https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/newmobility.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/charging.png?fit=300%2C247&ssl=1",300,247,true],"medium_large":["https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/newmobility.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/charging.png?fit=640%2C527&ssl=1",640,527,true],"large":["https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/newmobility.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/charging.png?fit=640%2C527&ssl=1",640,527,true],"1536x1536":["https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/newmobility.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/charging.png?fit=1144%2C942&ssl=1",1144,942,true],"2048x2048":["https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/newmobility.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/charging.png?fit=1144%2C942&ssl=1",1144,942,true],"trp-custom-language-flag":["https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/newmobility.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/charging.png?fit=15%2C12&ssl=1",15,12,true],"related-thumb":["https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/newmobility.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/charging.png?resize=640%2C480&ssl=1",640,480,true],"gform-image-choice-sm":["https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/newmobility.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/charging.png?resize=300%2C300&ssl=1",300,300,true],"gform-image-choice-md":["https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/newmobility.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/charging.png?resize=400%2C400&ssl=1",400,400,true],"gform-image-choice-lg":["https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/newmobility.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/charging.png?resize=600%2C600&ssl=1",600,600,true],"mailchimp":["https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/newmobility.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/charging.png?fit=560%2C461&ssl=1",560,461,true],"unipress-phone":["https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/newmobility.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/charging.png?resize=640%2C100&ssl=1",640,100,true],"unipress-tablet":["https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/newmobility.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/charging.png?resize=1144%2C240&ssl=1",1144,240,true],"unipress-tablet-portrait":["https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/newmobility.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/charging.png?resize=1144%2C180&ssl=1",1144,180,true],"unipress-tablet-landscape":["https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/newmobility.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/charging.png?resize=1144%2C180&ssl=1",1144,180,true],"unipress-smartphone":["https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/newmobility.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/charging.png?resize=1080%2C168&ssl=1",1080,168,true],"unipress-wide-screen":["https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/newmobility.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/charging.png?resize=1144%2C180&ssl=1",1144,180,true]},"post_excerpt_stackable_v2":"

New research in the magazine Nature Communications identifies what climate scientists call a “cascading positive tipping point” in certain EV markets. Europe and China are now past a decisive threshold. Their shift away from combustion-engined cars has become self-propelling. A research team at the University of Exeter has published what may be one of the more influential studies in the recent history of mobility: a peer-reviewed analysis demonstrating\u00a0that electric vehicle adoption in Europe and China has crossed a socio-technical tipping point. Past this threshold, the decline of the fossil-fueled engine becomes effectively irreversible. The paper, titled “Evidence of a cascading…<\/p>\n","category_list_v2":"China<\/a>, Energy<\/a>, Environment<\/a>, Europe<\/a>, Top Stories Today<\/a>, USA<\/a>","author_info_v2":{"name":"Piet Andries","url":"https:\/\/newmobility.news\/fr\/author\/piet-andriesgmail-com\/"},"comments_num_v2":"0 comments","yoast_head":"\nThe point of no return: EV adoption in Europe and China can no longer be undone - newmobility.news<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/newmobility.news\/fr\/2026\/05\/21\/the-point-of-no-return-ev-adoption-in-europe-and-china-can-no-longer-be-undone\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The point of no return: EV adoption in Europe and China can no longer be undone - newmobility.news\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"New research in the magazine Nature Communications identifies what climate scientists call a “cascading positive tipping point” in certain EV markets. Europe and China are now past a decisive threshold. Their shift away from combustion-engined cars has become self-propelling. A research team at the University of Exeter has published what may be one of the […]\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/newmobility.news\/fr\/2026\/05\/21\/the-point-of-no-return-ev-adoption-in-europe-and-china-can-no-longer-be-undone\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"newmobility.news\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/search\/top\/?q=newmobility.news\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2026-05-21T20:34:33+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/newmobility.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/charging.png\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1144\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"942\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Piet Andries\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@jorisvry\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@jorisvry\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"\u00c9crit par\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Piet Andries\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Dur\u00e9e de lecture est.\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"4 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/newmobility.news\\\/2026\\\/05\\\/21\\\/the-point-of-no-return-ev-adoption-in-europe-and-china-can-no-longer-be-undone\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/newmobility.news\\\/2026\\\/05\\\/21\\\/the-point-of-no-return-ev-adoption-in-europe-and-china-can-no-longer-be-undone\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Piet Andries\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/newmobility.news\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/4f0a0e407f0ee24ec763e67b0a5840a5\"},\"headline\":\"The point of no return: EV adoption in Europe and China can no longer be undone\",\"datePublished\":\"2026-05-21T20:34:33+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/newmobility.news\\\/2026\\\/05\\\/21\\\/the-point-of-no-return-ev-adoption-in-europe-and-china-can-no-longer-be-undone\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":726,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/newmobility.news\\\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/newmobility.news\\\/2026\\\/05\\\/21\\\/the-point-of-no-return-ev-adoption-in-europe-and-china-can-no-longer-be-undone\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/i0.wp.com\\\/newmobility.news\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2026\\\/05\\\/charging.png?fit=1144%2C942&ssl=1\",\"articleSection\":[\"China\",\"Energy\",\"Environment\",\"Europe\",\"Top Stories Today\",\"USA\"],\"inLanguage\":\"fr-BE\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/newmobility.news\\\/2026\\\/05\\\/21\\\/the-point-of-no-return-ev-adoption-in-europe-and-china-can-no-longer-be-undone\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/newmobility.news\\\/2026\\\/05\\\/21\\\/the-point-of-no-return-ev-adoption-in-europe-and-china-can-no-longer-be-undone\\\/\",\"name\":\"The point of no return: EV adoption in Europe and China can no longer be undone - 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