{"id":187851,"date":"2026-06-15T12:10:34","date_gmt":"2026-06-15T10:10:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/newmobility.news\/?p=187851"},"modified":"2026-06-15T11:13:30","modified_gmt":"2026-06-15T09:13:30","slug":"catl-bosss-reality-check-no-solid-state-ev-miracle-after-2030","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/newmobility.news\/fr\/2026\/06\/15\/catl-bosss-reality-check-no-solid-state-ev-miracle-after-2030\/","title":{"rendered":"Le retour \u00e0 la r\u00e9alit\u00e9 du patron de CATL : pas de miracle des batteries \u00e0 semi-conducteurs pour les v\u00e9hicules \u00e9lectriques apr\u00e8s 2030"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Les batteries \u00e0 \u00e9lectrolyte solide sont souvent pr\u00e9sent\u00e9es comme la prochaine grande avanc\u00e9e pour les voitures \u00e9lectriques, promettant une plus grande autonomie, une recharge plus rapide, une s\u00e9curit\u00e9 accrue et peut-\u00eatre des co\u00fbts r\u00e9duits.<\/p>\n<p>Mais Robin Zeng Yuqun, fondateur et pr\u00e9sident de CATL, le plus grand fabricant mondial de batteries pour v\u00e9hicules \u00e9lectriques, a ramen\u00e9 cet optimisme \u00e0 la r\u00e9alit\u00e9. Et quand une telle autorit\u00e9 s'exprime, cela vaut la peine de l'\u00e9couter.<\/p>\n<h4>Loin d'un d\u00e9ploiement \u00e0 grande \u00e9chelle<\/h4>\n<p>Dans une interview accord\u00e9e au magazine \u00e9conomique chinois Caijing, M. Zeng a d\u00e9clar\u00e9 que les v\u00e9ritables batteries \u00e0 \u00e9lectrolyte solide \u00e9taient encore loin d'\u00eatre commercialis\u00e9es \u00e0 grande \u00e9chelle et qu'il \u00e9tait \u201c tr\u00e8s improbable \u201d d'atteindre un million de v\u00e9hicules avant 2030.<\/p>\n<p>Son avertissement est d'autant plus important que CATL n'est pas un simple spectateur qui rejette une technologie concurrente. La diff\u00e9rence essentielle r\u00e9side dans le fait que Zeng parlait de \u201c v\u00e9ritables \u201d batteries \u00e0 l'\u00e9tat solide, et non des mod\u00e8les semi-solides ou hybrides qui \u00e9quipent d\u00e9j\u00e0 certains v\u00e9hicules chinois.<\/p>\n<p>Une v\u00e9ritable batterie \u00e0 \u00e9lectrolyte solide remplace l'\u00e9lectrolyte liquide des cellules lithium-ion actuelles par un \u00e9lectrolyte solide. En th\u00e9orie, cela pourrait permettre d'obtenir une densit\u00e9 \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique plus \u00e9lev\u00e9e, une meilleure s\u00e9curit\u00e9 incendie et des anodes en lithium-m\u00e9tal capables de stocker davantage d'\u00e9nergie dans un m\u00eame volume.<\/p>\n<h4>Produire des millions de cellules \u00e0 moindre co\u00fbt<\/h4>\n<p>Dans la pratique, cependant, le d\u00e9fi ne consiste pas \u00e0 fabriquer une seule cellule de laboratoire performante. Il s'agit plut\u00f4t de produire des millions de cellules \u00e0 moindre co\u00fbt, en toute s\u00e9curit\u00e9 et avec une qualit\u00e9 constante, puis de d\u00e9montrer qu'elles peuvent r\u00e9sister \u00e0 des ann\u00e9es de vibrations, de chaleur, de recharge rapide, de temp\u00e9ratures glaciales et de cycles de charge-d\u00e9charge r\u00e9p\u00e9t\u00e9s dans des voitures r\u00e9elles.<\/p>\n<p>Zeng a mis en avant l'interface solide-solide comme un probl\u00e8me central : les ions doivent se d\u00e9placer sans heurts entre des mat\u00e9riaux solides qui, par nature, ne sont pas en contact parfait.<\/p>\n<p>CATL classe actuellement la technologie des batteries \u00e0 semi-conducteurs au niveau 4 sur une \u00e9chelle de maturit\u00e9 technologique \u00e0 neuf niveaux, ce qui signifie qu'elle en est encore au stade du d\u00e9veloppement technologique et qu'elle est loin d'\u00eatre un produit commercialis\u00e9 \u00e0 grande \u00e9chelle.<\/p>\n<p>Cela ne signifie pas pour autant que la technologie \u00e0 semi-conducteurs soit morte. Cela signifie simplement que le calendrier est probablement moins spectaculaire que ne le laissent entendre les gros titres. Toyota vise une utilisation pratique des v\u00e9hicules \u00e9lectriques vers 2027 ou 2028, avec le soutien de Sumitomo Metal Mining et d'Idemitsu Kosan pour les mat\u00e9riaux cl\u00e9s.<\/p>\n<p>Nissan souhaite commercialiser des v\u00e9hicules \u00e9lectriques \u00e9quip\u00e9s de batteries tout-solide d\u00e9velopp\u00e9es en interne au cours de l'exercice 2028 et pr\u00e9pare actuellement une ligne pilote \u00e0 Yokohama. Honda a ouvert une ligne de production de d\u00e9monstration au Japon afin de tester les m\u00e9thodes et les co\u00fbts de production en s\u00e9rie. Samsung SDI indique qu'elle vise la production en s\u00e9rie de batteries tout-solide en 2027.<\/p>\n<h4>L'Europe et les \u00c9tats-Unis vont de l'avant<\/h4>\n<p>Les projets europ\u00e9ens et am\u00e9ricains passent \u00e9galement de la phase de laboratoire \u00e0 celle de l'int\u00e9gration dans les v\u00e9hicules. Mercedes-Benz a test\u00e9 un prototype d'EQS \u00e9quip\u00e9 d'une batterie \u00e0 semi-conducteurs et souhaite mettre cette technologie en production en s\u00e9rie d'ici la fin de la d\u00e9cennie.<\/p>\n<p>BMW teste actuellement des cellules tout-solide grand format de Solid Power sur une i7. PowerCo, la filiale de Volkswagen sp\u00e9cialis\u00e9e dans les batteries, a conclu un accord de licence avec QuantumScape qui pourrait \u00e0 terme permettre une production annuelle de 40 GWh, extensible \u00e0 80 GWh, si les objectifs techniques sont atteints. Stellantis a commenc\u00e9 \u00e0 tester sur route un prototype de Dodge Charger Daytona \u00e9quip\u00e9 de cellules \u00e0 semi-conducteurs de Factorial.<\/p>\n<p>La course est donc bien r\u00e9elle, mais le choix des mots a son importance. Les expressions telles que \u201c essais sur route \u201d, \u201c ligne pilote \u201d, \u201c v\u00e9hicule de d\u00e9monstration \u201d et \u201c premi\u00e8re mise en service \u201d ne signifient pas pour autant que des millions de voitures familiales seront \u00e9quip\u00e9es de batteries bon march\u00e9.<\/p>\n<p>Le calendrier \u00e9tabli par BYD, qui pr\u00e9voit des d\u00e9monstrations vers 2027 et une mise en \u0153uvre \u00e0 plus grande \u00e9chelle seulement apr\u00e8s 2030, constitue un point de r\u00e9f\u00e9rence utile. Il va dans le sens de l'avertissement lanc\u00e9 par CATL, sans pour autant le contredire.<\/p>\n<p>Pour le conducteur moyen d'un v\u00e9hicule \u00e9lectrique, la r\u00e9alit\u00e9 probable apr\u00e8s 2030 n'est pas que toutes les voitures soient soudainement \u00e9quip\u00e9es d'une batterie \u00e0 semi-conducteurs. La premi\u00e8re vague concernera probablement les voitures haut de gamme, les mod\u00e8les \u00e0 grande autonomie et les v\u00e9hicules de sport, o\u00f9 la r\u00e9duction du poids, la densit\u00e9 \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique plus \u00e9lev\u00e9e et les gains potentiels en mati\u00e8re de recharge rapide justifient le co\u00fbt.<\/p>\n<h4>Une batterie plus petite et plus l\u00e9g\u00e8re<\/h4>\n<p>Un v\u00e9hicule \u00e9lectrique haut de gamme pourrait \u00eatre \u00e9quip\u00e9 d'une batterie plus petite et plus l\u00e9g\u00e8re tout en conservant la m\u00eame autonomie, ou b\u00e9n\u00e9ficier d'une autonomie accrue sans pour autant avoir besoin d'une batterie plus volumineuse. La s\u00e9curit\u00e9 pourrait s'en trouver am\u00e9lior\u00e9e, car les \u00e9lectrolytes solides sont g\u00e9n\u00e9ralement moins inflammables que les \u00e9lectrolytes liquides ; toutefois, une batterie compl\u00e8te reste un syst\u00e8me complexe \u00e0 haute \u00e9nergie, et non un dispositif sans risque.<\/p>\n<p>Pour les conducteurs du grand public, les avantages pourraient se faire attendre. Si les cellules \u00e0 semi-conducteurs restent co\u00fbteuses, les v\u00e9hicules \u00e9lectriques abordables pourraient encore tirer davantage profit des batteries LFP, qui sont bon march\u00e9, durables, sans cobalt et d\u00e9j\u00e0 largement produites.<\/p>\n<p>Les batteries au sodium-ion pourraient s'imposer pour les v\u00e9hicules \u00e0 faible autonomie, les deux-roues, une utilisation par temps froid et le stockage stationnaire, car elles permettent de r\u00e9duire la d\u00e9pendance au lithium. Les batteries NMC riches en nickel et celles riches en mangan\u00e8se pourraient rester utiles lorsque la densit\u00e9 \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique \u00e9lev\u00e9e l'emporte sur le co\u00fbt.<\/p>\n<p>Il existe \u00e9galement une id\u00e9e fausse tr\u00e8s r\u00e9pandue : la technologie \u00ab solid-state \u00bb n'est pas une composition chimique au m\u00eame titre que le NMC, le LFP ou le sodium-ion. Il s'agit avant tout d'une architecture articul\u00e9e autour d'un \u00e9lectrolyte solide.<\/p>\n<p>Une future batterie \u00e0 \u00e9lectrolyte solide pourrait tout de m\u00eame utiliser du lithium, des cathodes riches en nickel ou d'autres mat\u00e9riaux. Le secteur n'a donc pas \u00e0 choisir simplement entre \u201c \u00e9lectrolyte solide \u201d et \u201c LFP \u201d, mais entre de nombreuses combinaisons de cathodes, d'anodes et d'\u00e9lectrolytes, en tenant compte du co\u00fbt, de la s\u00e9curit\u00e9, de la durabilit\u00e9 et de la cha\u00eene d'approvisionnement.<\/p>\n<h4>Il faudra encore des ann\u00e9es avant de pouvoir rivaliser<\/h4>\n<p>L'Agence internationale de l'\u00e9nergie a \u00e9galement averti que les volumes de production des batteries \u00e0 semi-conducteurs seraient probablement limit\u00e9s au d\u00e9but et qu'il faudrait peut-\u00eatre attendre plusieurs ann\u00e9es apr\u00e8s leur mise sur le march\u00e9 pour que cette technologie puisse rivaliser avec les batteries lithium-ion actuelles en termes de co\u00fbt.<\/p>\n<p>La barre est plac\u00e9e tr\u00e8s haut, car les batteries classiques continuent de s'am\u00e9liorer. Les batteries LFP gagnent en performance, les batteries NMC offrent une densit\u00e9 \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique de plus en plus \u00e9lev\u00e9e, les compositions LMFP et \u00e0 forte teneur en mangan\u00e8se font leur apparition, et les batteries sodium-ion passent du stade de la promesse \u00e0 celui de la production.<\/p>\n<p>Il n'y a pas non plus d'autre \u00ab batterie miracle \u00bb qui attendrait juste apr\u00e8s les batteries \u00e0 semi-conducteurs. Les batteries lithium-soufre, lithium-air, m\u00e9tal-air et d'autres technologies chimiques avanc\u00e9es promettent, en th\u00e9orie, des avanc\u00e9es majeures, notamment en termes de poids, d'utilisation des mati\u00e8res premi\u00e8res ou de densit\u00e9 \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique th\u00e9orique.<\/p>\n<p>Mais la plupart sont encore plus loin de la production automobile de masse que les batteries \u00e0 semi-conducteurs, car ils se heurtent \u00e0 des probl\u00e8mes non r\u00e9solus en mati\u00e8re de dur\u00e9e de vie, de puissance, de rendement, de s\u00e9curit\u00e9, de conception ou de co\u00fbt.<\/p>\n<p>Au cours de la prochaine d\u00e9cennie, le changement le plus important devrait donc r\u00e9sulter d'am\u00e9liorations progressives plut\u00f4t que d'un remplacement spectaculaire : des batteries LFP et LMFP plus performantes, des cathodes riches en mangan\u00e8se, des anodes riches en silicium, des batteries sodium-ion pour certains cas d'utilisation sp\u00e9cifiques, des cellules semi-solides et, \u00e0 terme, de v\u00e9ritables batteries \u00e0 l'\u00e9tat solide lorsque leur rentabilit\u00e9 sera av\u00e9r\u00e9e.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Solid-state batteries are often presented as the next great leap for electric cars, promising more range, faster charging, better safety, and perhaps lower costs. But Robin Zeng Yuqun, founder and chairman of CATL, the world\u2019s largest EV battery maker, has given that optimism a reality check. And when such an authority speaks, it&#8217;s worth listening. [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":21,"featured_media":187855,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"{title}\r\n\r\n{excerpt}\r\n\r\n{url}","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"_wpas_customize_per_network":false,"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[77162,77160,2043,6,4],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-187851","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-batteries","category-china","category-energy","category-technology","category-top-stories-today"],"acf":[],"featured_image_urls_v2":{"full":["https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/newmobility.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/Scherm%C2%ADafbeelding-2026-06-15-om-10.51.39.png?fit=2020%2C1074&ssl=1",2020,1074,false],"thumbnail":["https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/newmobility.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/Scherm%C2%ADafbeelding-2026-06-15-om-10.51.39.png?resize=150%2C150&ssl=1",150,150,true],"medium":["https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/newmobility.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/Scherm%C2%ADafbeelding-2026-06-15-om-10.51.39.png?fit=300%2C160&ssl=1",300,160,true],"medium_large":["https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/newmobility.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/Scherm%C2%ADafbeelding-2026-06-15-om-10.51.39.png?fit=640%2C340&ssl=1",640,340,true],"large":["https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/newmobility.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/Scherm%C2%ADafbeelding-2026-06-15-om-10.51.39.png?fit=640%2C340&ssl=1",640,340,true],"1536x1536":["https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/newmobility.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/Scherm%C2%ADafbeelding-2026-06-15-om-10.51.39.png?fit=1536%2C817&ssl=1",1536,817,true],"2048x2048":["https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/newmobility.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/Scherm%C2%ADafbeelding-2026-06-15-om-10.51.39.png?fit=2020%2C1074&ssl=1",2020,1074,true],"trp-custom-language-flag":["https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/newmobility.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/Scherm%C2%ADafbeelding-2026-06-15-om-10.51.39.png?fit=18%2C10&ssl=1",18,10,true],"related-thumb":["https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/newmobility.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/Scherm%C2%ADafbeelding-2026-06-15-om-10.51.39.png?resize=640%2C480&ssl=1",640,480,true],"gform-image-choice-sm":["https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/newmobility.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/Scherm%C2%ADafbeelding-2026-06-15-om-10.51.39.png?resize=300%2C300&ssl=1",300,300,true],"gform-image-choice-md":["https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/newmobility.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/Scherm%C2%ADafbeelding-2026-06-15-om-10.51.39.png?resize=400%2C400&ssl=1",400,400,true],"gform-image-choice-lg":["https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/newmobility.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/Scherm%C2%ADafbeelding-2026-06-15-om-10.51.39.png?resize=600%2C600&ssl=1",600,600,true],"mailchimp":["https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/newmobility.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/Scherm%C2%ADafbeelding-2026-06-15-om-10.51.39.png?fit=560%2C298&ssl=1",560,298,true],"unipress-phone":["https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/newmobility.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/Scherm%C2%ADafbeelding-2026-06-15-om-10.51.39.png?resize=640%2C100&ssl=1",640,100,true],"unipress-tablet":["https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/newmobility.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/Scherm%C2%ADafbeelding-2026-06-15-om-10.51.39.png?resize=1536%2C240&ssl=1",1536,240,true],"unipress-tablet-portrait":["https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/newmobility.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/Scherm%C2%ADafbeelding-2026-06-15-om-10.51.39.png?resize=1536%2C180&ssl=1",1536,180,true],"unipress-tablet-landscape":["https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/newmobility.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/Scherm%C2%ADafbeelding-2026-06-15-om-10.51.39.png?resize=2020%2C180&ssl=1",2020,180,true],"unipress-smartphone":["https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/newmobility.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/Scherm%C2%ADafbeelding-2026-06-15-om-10.51.39.png?resize=1080%2C168&ssl=1",1080,168,true],"unipress-wide-screen":["https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/newmobility.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/Scherm%C2%ADafbeelding-2026-06-15-om-10.51.39.png?resize=2020%2C180&ssl=1",2020,180,true]},"post_excerpt_stackable_v2":"<p>Solid-state batteries are often presented as the next great leap for electric cars, promising more range, faster charging, better safety, and perhaps lower costs. But Robin Zeng Yuqun, founder and chairman of CATL, the world\u2019s largest EV battery maker, has given that optimism a reality check. And when such an authority speaks, it&#8217;s worth listening. Far from mass-market deployment In an interview with Chinese business magazine Caijing, Zeng said true solid-state batteries are still far from mass-market deployment and that reaching a million-car scale before 2030 is \u201cvery unlikely\u201d. His warning matters because CATL is not a bystander dismissing a&hellip;<\/p>\n","category_list_v2":"<a href=\"https:\/\/newmobility.news\/fr\/category\/batteries\/\" rel=\"category tag\">Batteries<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/newmobility.news\/fr\/category\/china\/\" rel=\"category tag\">China<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/newmobility.news\/fr\/category\/energy\/\" rel=\"category tag\">Energy<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/newmobility.news\/fr\/category\/technology\/\" rel=\"category tag\">Technology<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/newmobility.news\/fr\/category\/top-stories-today\/\" rel=\"category tag\">Top Stories Today<\/a>","author_info_v2":{"name":"Joris Van Roy","url":"https:\/\/newmobility.news\/fr\/author\/jorisximcom-be\/"},"comments_num_v2":"0 comments","yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.8 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>CATL boss&#039;s reality check: no solid-state EV miracle after 2030 - newmobility.news<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/newmobility.news\/fr\/2026\/06\/15\/catl-bosss-reality-check-no-solid-state-ev-miracle-after-2030\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"CATL boss&#039;s reality check: no solid-state EV miracle after 2030 - newmobility.news\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Solid-state batteries are often presented as the next great leap for electric cars, promising more range, faster charging, better safety, and perhaps lower costs. 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