Planet Earth is heading for more than 1.5 degrees of global warming. A disturbing new calculation shows that the rate of warming is now twice as fast as it was at the end of the 20th century.
The climate goal the world set itself ten years ago in Paris was to limit global warming to “well below 2 degrees”, with 1.5 degrees as a guideline. Scientifically, every tenth of a degree extra translates into more consequences, such as more extreme weather, shifting weather patterns, thawing ice masses, and a greater risk of extremely high sea levels over centuries.
Hottest year on record
According to American calculations by the climate institute Berkeley Earth, there is now a more than 50 percent chance that this year, just like last year, it will be warmer than the 1.5 degrees of warming measured since the 19th century.
In Europe, the Copernicus satellite program has found that of the past 22 months, 21 were more than 1.5 degrees warmer than before. 2024, for instance, was the hottest year on record worldwide.
World’s largest emitter ahead of target
Still, hopeful news is coming from China. According to a Finnish analysis, greenhouse gas emissions in China fell for the first time last year while energy demand increased. Emissions had already fallen a little during the coronavirus pandemic, but now they have fallen by one percent.
This positive development can be explained by China’s rapid switch to solar, wind, and nuclear energy, its phasing out of cement and steel production, and its mass adoption of electric driving. China is the world’s largest emitter, but is now one of the few countries ahead of its climate target.
“But we’re not there yet,” the Finns warn. A dry, hot summer could result in China emitting more CO2. That happens if the Chinese turn on their air conditioners en masse and dry up their hydroelectric power stations…
0.4 degrees per decade
Scientists had expected global temperatures to drop slightly this year due to the cooling ocean phenomenon La Niña, but La Niña has not brought as much cooling as expected. The rate of warming is now about 0.4 degrees per decade.
Scientists believe that warming has been happening much faster since around 2010 because there is less air pollution that reflects sunlight back into space.
