How could urban mobility in Brussels evolve by 2050? That is the million-dollar question of Remobilise, a research project of the Vrije Universiteit Brussel (VUB). The researchers drew four possible future scenarios and are now considering policy recommendations in workshops to tackle everyday mobility challenges.

“The future does not always develop as we expect. The recent pandemic reminded us of that once again,” says Sara Tori, a Ph.D. researcher at Mobilise and one of the authors of the project. “Therefore, we cannot rely on single visions. With our scenarios, we can better anticipate and improve the resilience of our cities.”

Brussels’ resilience

The researchers sought the opinion of 51 experts from the mobility sector, such as the Brussels intercommunal transport company MIVB/STIB, the Wallon public transport company TEC, the Port of Brussels, and the FPS Mobility and Transport.

From these, four possible routes emerged, which considered both an increase and a decrease in public transport. These future scenarios were then further explored in workshops with 17 stakeholders, such as the Sustainable Mobility Network, the Cyclists’ Union, and Walk.Brussels.

Four different scenarios

The four trajectories reflect the daily routines of different characters from various socio-demographic groups and consider various possible challenges and evolutions, such as car dependence, e-commerce, and the integration of Brussels municipalities.

The first scenario involves a unified Great Brussels, where walking and cycling are dominant modes of transport in central areas, commuters use a mini-hyperloop or an expanded RER system, teleworking and tele-education are the norms, and deliveries of large parcels are realized by mega drones.

In the second scenario Maxi Freedom, mobility policies infrastructures, and traffic rules are unique per each commune. As public transport became too unsafe, metro stations now serve different purposes, the wealthy bypass congestion by individual air traffic, and most of the city is recovered due to excessive heat.

On four wheels

The third scenario starts from the idea that all of Brussels is on four wheels. The city center is, for example, completely transformed by booming tourism, cars are everywhere, resulting in heavy congestion, and the underfinanced public transport becomes unsafe and scarcely used. Plus: urban sprawl increased commuting distances and boats are often used to transport people and/or goods.

In the fourth and thus last scenario Hyper-proximity, the densified communes are organized in a 15-minute city logic mobility of policies. Infrastructures and rules are also unique per each commune, causing a Hugh number of accidents, and there are only a small number of cars left, most of which are shared.

Software tool

In September 2024, in a further phase of the project, the research group will release a Remobilise software tool. This will address policymakers and will develop measures to address the various mobility challenges. For example, the tool will allow policymakers to test the impact of a measure against a given uncertainty.

You can find more info about Remobilise on the project’s website.