Until now, the European CO₂ pool centered on Tesla has been a major conglomerate of automakers, including Ford, Mazda, Honda, Toyota, and Stellantis. However, for 2026, two major manufacturers, Toyota and Stellantis, may withdraw from this pool, two of Tesla’s largest financial contributors to this scheme.

At the EU level, manufacturers can join so-called CO₂ pools to combine their otherwise separate fleets into a single large fleet for CO₂ regulatory purposes. This allows manufacturers with a high proportion of electric vehicles (EVs) to offset their CO₂ savings against the fleets of manufacturers that have not yet met their CO₂ targets.

By doing so, manufacturers can avoid EU fines, though they typically must pay to join the pool. However, these payments are usually significantly lower than the penalties imposed by the EU. Final figures for 2025 are not yet available; only preliminary calculations from experts such as Dataforce and the ICCT are known.

However, while the definitive values may differ slightly from these forecasts, a clear trend is evident in the case of the ‘Tesla Pool’: only Tesla, as a pure EV manufacturer, and Stellantis’ partner Leapmotor (which produces almost exclusively battery-electric vehicles (BEVs), and some EREVs or extended range EVs) significantly undercut the targets.

Pool partners such as Subaru, Suzuki, Mazda, and Honda fall well short of their CO₂ targets. Ford and Stellantis are close, while Toyota is expected to meet its CO₂ target of 96.3 grams per kilometer almost exactly.

‘Tesla pool’ in 2026

These likely results for 2025 and internal planning for the current year have now led to two significant decisions. As automotive analyst Matthias Schmidt (Schmidt Automotive Research) reports, both Toyota and Stellantis (along with Leapmotor) will no longer be part of the ‘Tesla Pool’ in 2026. An EU document lists Tesla, Ford, Honda Motor, Mazda Motor, and Suzuki as the remaining members.

Without official statements from the companies, the exact reasons aren’t clear yet. In Toyota’s case, its European headquarters likely believes it can meet its CO₂ targets independently in the future. Toyota has maintained a high proportion of hybrids in its EU fleet for years and has few remaining high-emission models.

Additionally, the share of battery-electric vehicles in Toyota’s sales is expected to rise, as the model range is being expanded downward with the new Urban Cruiser and EVs like the recently updated bZ4X are finally taking off in the market.

Leapmotor

While Stellantis missed its CO₂ target by just over six grams per kilometer in Dataforce’s 2025 forecast, it could form a pool with its subsidiary Leapmotor.

However, with Stellantis’ recent strategic shift toward becoming a ‘beacon of freedom of choice’ and the revival of previously phased-out diesel engines in European models, it remains unclear how its CO₂ emissions will develop in 2026. However, Leapmotor’s regulatory benefits are expected to increase.

Production of the Leapmotor T03 is set to begin at a Stellantis plant in Spain later this year. “This will help avoid existing tariffs and counteract potential further European protectionism,” explains Matthias Schmidt.

Reports also suggest that negotiations are underway for Stellantis to use its partner’s technologies in its own models, but this remains unconfirmed for the moment. This could enable Stellantis to make its own EVs more affordable and technically competitive.

CO₂ pools must always be finalized by 1 December of the current year. Toyota and Stellantis still have time to monitor market developments in 2026 and potentially rejoin the ‘Tesla Pool’.

Impact for Tesla

The impact of CO₂ regulation on Tesla’s revenue cannot yet be accurately assessed. While Tesla has already highlighted the declining significance of CO₂-related income worldwide in its financial reports, two key contributors in the EU may be lost this year. But the final decision will not be made until early December.

Meanwhile, the US, by deregulating its environmental targets, is also reducing income from regulatory credits for Tesla, which was traditionally the main beneficiary.

Tesla highlighted lower regulatory credits as a headwind to profits and revenues during 2025 in their latest financial summary, but things are likely to get worse for the US brand in 2026.

In 2024, Tesla earned a record $2.76 billion globally from sales of regulatory credits. By 2025, that figure dropped 28% to roughly $2 billion, and the trajectory continues downward. In the US, the emissions-credit market was officially eliminated in 2025, costing Tesla an estimated $1.4 billion in revenue over nine months.