According to two new reports published on Monday by the International Cryosphere Climate Initiative (ICCI), in cooperation with the UN Environment Program (UNEP), the ice caps in Greenland and Antarctica are melting at around six times the rate of the 1990s.

Scientists warn that exceeding 1.5°C of global warming will have “irreversible” consequences for glaciers, sea ice, and all permanently frozen surfaces on Earth. Ideally, they suggest, long-term warming should be brought back down to below 1 degree.

In 2015, the international community set a goal of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels to avert the worst consequences of climate change.

‘Overshoot’

While the target has not yet officially been missed, the United Nations says it can no longer be met and will be exceeded at least temporarily, a scenario known as “overshoot.”

To reverse the overshoot in the long term, humanity would eventually have to enter a phase of negative emissions, where more carbon dioxide (CO2) is removed from the atmosphere than is emitted. Higher and longer warming above 1.5 degrees will also increase the risk of landslides and wildfires.

Some consequences are already visible, with a warming of 1.37 degrees compared to the pre-industrial level (1850-1900). For instance, one-fifth of Switzerland’s glaciers have already disappeared.

Slow recovery

The scientists also point out that – even if warming could subsequently be brought back down – recovery would be “very slow.” It could take several decades or even centuries.

We are currently heading toward a warming of 2.8 degrees Celsius. If this trajectory remains unchanged, sea levels could rise by 5 centimeters per year by 2150.

Last summer, the collapse of a glacier in Nepal claimed more than 1,500 lives. Five thousand people remain missing. Scientists are therefore urging policymakers to take action “as soon as possible.”