Biden to approve California’s 2035 ICE ban before Trump’s arrival (update)

As President Biden’s last days in office approach, his administration has granted California and eleven other states permission to ban the sale of new gasoline-powered cars by 2035. This marks one of the most ambitious climate policies in the US, but President-elect Donald Trump has vowed to lift the ban. This has now been made impossible.

The ‘Advanced Clean Cars 2’ move from California, mirrored by the EU’s ambition to go zero-emission by 2035, is seen as a significant step in the US effort to combat climate change, as gas-powered vehicles are the nation’s largest source of carbon dioxide emissions.

However, this landmark policy was facing strong opposition. President-elect Donald Trump pledged to revoke the waiver as part of his effort to dismantle Biden-era climate policies. But the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has now finally approved Califronia’s right to set its own emission standards.

‘Ridiculous car regulations’

“California has imposed ridiculous car regulations everywhere in the world, with mandates to move to all-electric cars,” Trump said. “I will terminate that.” However, the Washington Post reported that Biden hurried to ratify the California ban on ICE cars through the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), making it more complex for the new president to supersede the plans. This was done yesterday.

A repeal of the waiver would reignite a legal battle between the federal government and California, which has long been a trailblazer in climate policy and which is led by a Democrat governor, Gavin Newsom, who regards the 2035 ban as the symbolic end of the internal combustion engine era. “California has long led the nation in pioneering climate policies and innovation. Those efforts will continue for years to come,” vowed the governor.

Most polluted State

Newsom is keen on developing Trump-resistant measures, such as providing state-level tax rebates for EV purchases if the latter gets his way. He is also targeting his right-hand man, Elon Musk, with a subsidy scheme barring Tesla based on production volume—a remarkable move since Tesla is the number one EV maker in the State.

The waiver concerning California’s emissions regulations goes back a long way. It stems from the 1970s when the State suffered from being one of the most polluted in the US and was granted authority to apply its own set of rules called the Clean Air Act. Trump wants to superimpose federal guidelines, which undercut the State’s right to enforce its own rulings.

However, even if the next top manager of the EPA is Trump-devoted it will be extremely difficult and near to impossible to reverse the ruling. Once granted, the waiver doesn’t provide a legal way out to cancel it. The powers that be would only have the means to block waivers. In fact, California still has some of these pending, with regard to NOx-emission amongst others. Also, if a legal battle would become reality, it is not unthinkable that final judgement would extend beyond Trump’s reign.

Half of all US car sales

Under the Clean Air Act, other states can adopt the California standards. Eleven states have already followed suit, giving the policy significant weight in the US auto market. Together, these states account for nearly half of all US car sales.

Still, for auto manufacturers these political back-and-forth swings are a crossfire, creating regulatory uncertainty. Major car manufacturers like Ford, Volkswagen, Honda, and BMW previously struck voluntary deals with California during Trump’s first term, agreeing to follow the State’s stricter emissions rules. If Trump repeals it, the US could see a rollback of EV momentum just as electric cars are becoming mainstream.

California is a good example of this switch. In 2023, electric vehicles accounted for over 30% of all new car registrations in the San Francisco Bay Area, with Los Angeles close behind at 25%, according to S&P Global Mobility. California recently surpassed two million zero-emission vehicles sold, making it the clear leader in EV adoption nationwide.