Choosing train instead of plane to emit less CO2 has no effect

Four scientists from KU Leuven, the University of Ghent, and Transport and Mobility Leuven have concluded that it makes no sense to choose the train instead of the plane for trips within the European Union to emit less CO2. Due to the European emission ceilings, someone else will emit the saved CO2 anyway.

The Emission Trading System (ETS) has capped CO2 emissions in Europe since 2012. This ceiling will be lowered annually to bring total CO2 emissions from electricity production, industry, and the aviation sector down to zero by 20250.

Emission rights

“However, the consequence of the ETS system means that any alternative trip (other than by plane) between EU destinations no longer has any effect on total CO2 emissions in Europe,” the researchers write.

“One plane trip less results in unused emission rights that another emitter in the EU will buy over,” the researchers explain. “Thus, the aviation sector’s emission reduction is nullified.”

Other gases than CO2

The researchers point out that the ETS system does not include other gases, such as nitrogen oxides, particulate matter, and sulfur oxides. They want these effects to be taken into account.

They argue that if that is impossible or takes too long to calculate, then airlines, for example, should buy twice as many emission allowances so that the non-CO2 emissions also fall under the ETS cap.

Airlines that can demonstrate that they can reduce non-CO2 emissions can get back the excess paid allowances. “The result is then again a level playing field, where flying and rail are treated the same regarding climate.”