The airline industry’s ambition to move to zero emissions by 2050 is in jeopardy. This was stated by IATA, the global airline umbrella organization, at a summit in New Delhi, India, to discuss the state of the industry.
The aviation sector currently produces approximately 3% of global CO2 emissions; however, due to climate-skeptic policies, including those of U.S. President Donald Trump, it will be challenging to meet decarbonization targets, IATA warns.
“Drill, Baby, drill!”
To achieve zero emissions by 2050, the airline industry is essentially relying on renewable jet fuels, Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF), and new technologies such as hydrogen-powered aircraft, as well as optimizing ground and air operations, and implementing carbon offsets.
But unlike his predecessor, Joe Biden, who massively supported the production of SAF through tax credits, Trump has just made the revival of fossil fuels one of the cornerstones of the beginning of his term.
And there is an additional problem, one that plays in favor of Trump’s policy: the low price of oil. Brent crude is currently trading below $65 a barrel, the result of Trump’s trade wars, his call for “drill at all costs”, and an increase in OPEC+ quotas. That’s more than 22% cheaper compared to June last year.
Budget of $4,7 trillion
To achieve ‘net zero’ emissions by mid-century, 65% of airlines rely on SAF, according to IATA. These fuels, made from biomass, waste oils, and, in the future, CO2 capture, have the advantage that they can be used directly in today’s aircraft, which are certified to accept 50% blends of fossil kerosene. They can reduce CO2 emissions by 80% compared to kerosene over their entire lifecycle.
According to IATA Vice President for Sustainability, Marie Owens Thomsen, 4,7 trillion dollars will be needed to establish SAF systems capable of meeting air transport needs in this domain by 2050.
That seems like an impossible investment, but simply by stopping the subsidization of oil producers, currently worth $ 1,000 billion a year, the energy transition could be achieved in five years, according to Thomsen.
Still 99,3% of SAFs needed
IATA expects global SAF production to double this year from 2024 to 2,5 billion liters, a slight downward revision from previous projections of 2,7 billion.
However, that 2,5 billion liters represents only 0,7% of total aviation needs, says IATA chief Willie Walsh. Walsh also questions Europe’s imposition of establishment mandates that exceed the capacity of producers, who then pass on the fines to their customers. As a result, SAF rates in Europe have doubled, and “this is unacceptable,” Walsh says.
Less than 2% of total US aviation fuel consumption is SAF
As for the US, last year, US SAF production capacity was about 2,000 barrels per day (bpd). By the end of 2024, this capacity will have increased by about 25,000 bpd, thanks to new projects by Phillips 66 in California and Diamond Green Diesel in Texas. Or the equivalent to a production of about 1,3 billion liters of SAF.
In 2025, another 5,000 bpd were added by smaller projects in Nevada and Hawaii, bringing the total capacity to about 30,000 bpd.
However, despite the growth, SAF currently represents less than 2% of total US aviation fuel consumption, which is approximately 1.7 million barrels per day. Moreover, the Trump administration has raised questions about broader subsidies and tax breaks for SAF, as outlined in the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022. The 45Z tax credit, which offers clean fuel producers up to $1,75 per gallon, is currently under review and could be repealed.
