The American research organization BloombergNEF (BNEF), widely regarded as an authority in global analyses across various domains, including electric mobility and clean energy, expects EV sales to surge this year like never before, with a 25% increase to 22 million vehicles. Nearly two-thirds of those 22 million will be sold in China, 17% in Europe—a 20% rise compared to 2024—and a relatively flat rise to 7% in the US.
Still, the Electric Vehicle Outlook 2025 varies more than ever in specific regions, such as the US. 2025 is the first year in which BNEV has reduced both its near-term and long-term passenger EV adoption outlook. Policy changes under Trump in the US are the most significant factor, which might reduce the uptake of EVs by 14 million by 2030, compared with previous predictions.
World rapidly moving forward
Apart from the US, where Trump and Elon Musk continue cuttin’ capers, the rest of the world is rapidly moving forward in the transition, and not only the wealthy countries, as BNEV points out. Thailand, for instance, has a bigger EV uptake than the US, and Brazil is ahead of Japan.
“25% is a remarkable increase from just a few years ago when EVs represented less than 5% of global new vehicle sales,” the BNEF researchers conclude. They point to the cost of lithium-ion batteries falling and the production of more affordable models ramping up.
In its latest re-adjusted predictions, China’s EV sales will rise from 17.6 million in 2024 to over 39 million in 2030, or 80% of car sales. In Europe, where the UK is currently leading in absolute numbers, surpassing Germany, which saw a dip after government incentives were scrapped, 52% of new car sales are expected to be electric by 2030. Global new electric passenger vehicle sales are expected to jump to 42%.
That figure is lower than initially assessed, due to the US, where BNEF predicts EV sales to grow from 1.6 million in 2025 to 4.1 million in 2030 in this year’s outlook, representing 27% of total sales. But that’s far less than in previous BNEF outlooks, around 14 million fewer units over the next five years.
It’s all related to Trump’s move to cut back emission standards, phasing out the $7,500 EV incentives, attempts to muzzle California in its lead in stricter-than-average US emission standards, and the reduced support for EV charging infrastructure. Not to mention the import tariffs on cars and Chinese EVs in particular, which were already the case under Biden.
Improved technology
Reasons cited for the expected boom in EV acceptance include the rapid improvement of technology and the growth of charging infrastructures, with several national fast-charging networks doubling in size over the past 18 months. Fast-charging becomes competitive with refueling a gasoline-powered car in terms of time.
While most EV owners today rely on charging at home for lower energy costs, which is typically 20-60% cheaper than gasoline on a per-kilometer-driven basis, public fast-charging prices have risen sharply since 2022 in many European markets. This is according to BNEF, pushing costs per kilometer above those of gasoline and likely discouraging some consumers from switching to EVs.
E-REVs are hot
Plug-in hybrids will still play a significant role for those who haven’t yet been cured of ‘range anxiety’, which is still one of the most heard reasons why people are reluctant to switch. The so-called range-extended plugin hybrids, or e-REVs, are gaining popularity in the SUV segment.
These usually have bigger battery packs for pure electric ranges up to 170 km or more and are expected to ‘overtake’ regular PHEVs, with sales projected to rise 83% in 2024 to 1.2 million. Especially in China, in rural regions where the EV charging infrastructure is limited.
BEVs only in China cheaper than ICE
The primary reason why people hesitate to go electric remains the initial purchase cost of an EV compared to a car with a classic combustion engine (ICE). BNEF compared prices worldwide, finding that in China only, today, EVs are cheaper to buy than their ICE counterparts.
Over there, small and large EVs can be even 50% more affordable, with SUVs nearing 35% and only mid-sized EVs being slightly more expensive than their ICE siblings. That was typically a segment for international automakers, but without competitive EV models, they are struggling to compete in China and are being squeezed out of the market. In countries like Germany, it’s just the opposite, where you have to pay a premium of 60% or more for small EVs, and a 30% or more surplus in other segments.
Sales of ICE cars peaked in 2017, and the global fleet is expected to reach its peak soon, remaining at this level until 2028 before declining. By 2030, ICE sales are predicted to be 34% lower than in 2017.
Bright future for EVs
For EVs, BNEF still sees a bright future with sales reaching 56% of global passenger vehicle sales by 2035 and 70% by 2040. However, despite this rapid EV adoption, only 40% of the worldwide passenger vehicle fleet is expected to be electric by 2040 in BNEF’s Economic Transition Scenario.
BNEF also examines trends in the electric transition from commercial vehicles to three- and two-wheelers. The BNEF specialists anticipate that the economics of battery-powered vans and trucks will improve rapidly and approach those of diesel by 2030 in several countries and for various use cases, including heavy-duty and long-haul operations.
Commercial vehicles following
That should result in 34% of sales of ‘light-duty’ vans and trucks being electric in 2030 and 15% of heavy-duty trucks, while buses will be mainly electric with an average of 65%. Meager offerings and high purchase prices limit the uptake of electric motorcycles, but in mopeds and scooters, electric is ‘exploding’, especially in Asian countries.
In 2024, 38% of two-wheelers sold were electric, but BNEF forecasts that sales will gain momentum, reaching 42% of total sales by 2028 and 83% by 2040. Three-wheelers, which are primarily used for light commercial transport, are expected to electrify much faster, with EVs accounting for more than 80% of all sales in 2024 and 97% by 2040.
