According to a new study by the Federal Planning Bureau, Belgium should build 8 new nuclear power plants by 2050 to make its electricity supply climate-neutral.
In the most cost-optimal scenario, both offshore wind and nuclear energy will be fully expanded. Offshore wind capacity will then grow from 2.2 to 8 gigawatts, and new nuclear power plants will be built for 8 gigawatts, the equivalent of eight large reactors like Doel 4.
Electricity demand will more than double
Belgian electricity consumption is likely to more than double to over 200 terawatt hours by 2050. That makes sense if we all start driving electric cars and also electrify the industry. The question is where that electricity will come from.
Do we want to import more electricity or build our own nuclear power plants? Should we massively invest in offshore wind energy? These and other choices face us if we’re going to meet our electricity demand climate-neutrally by 2050.
Three scenarios
To answer these questions, the researchers developed three scenarios. An initial scenario assumes we will continue with the nuclear phase-out and maximize our use of offshore wind energy, combined with significant electricity imports from neighboring countries.
In a second scenario, we’ll also phase out nuclear energy and import less. Onshore wind turbines and solar panels will then become more critical.
A third scenario allows for new nuclear power plants, offshore wind turbines, and imports, and seeks the most financially optimal combination.
Sun and wind alone are not enough
Excluding a technology or investing too little in offshore wind energy can significantly increase costs, the researchers warn. “The best option is a lot of solar panels and as much offshore wind energy as possible,” concludes Ruben Baetens, who heads the Institute for Energy and Society at KU Leuven. “However, meeting our entire electricity demand with our own renewable energy is a utopia,” says Baetens.
The scenario in which new nuclear power plants are built may be the cheapest because we would have to import the least amount of electricity. Still, we are also dependent on other countries for the fuel for our nuclear power plants. “We must, therefore, weigh costs against dependency,” the researchers conclude.
Different scenarios
Dependence on electricity imports does not necessarily have to be a problem. It can even be an advantage, although the question always remains whether the electricity will be available when we need it.
“It’s probably best to prepare several scenarios at once and only make decisions as the costs become clearer.
