Limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius will only be achievable with a rapid acceleration of climate protection efforts and international cooperation. The International Energy Agency (IEA) stated that in its new ‘Net Zero Roadmap’ edition.

If climate protection measures are not accelerated and implemented as planned by 2030, massive reliance will have to be placed on CO2 storage. According to the United Nations, the Earth is heading for more than 2.5 degrees Celsius of global warming on current trends. So, bolder action is necessary this decade.

The 2023 Roadmap incorporates the significant changes to the energy landscape in the past two years, including the post-pandemic economic rebound and the extraordinary growth in some clean energy technologies – but also increased investment in fossil fuels and stubbornly high emissions.

‘United effort’

According to the IEA, the target of the Paris Climate Agreement – keeping global warming below 1.5°C – is still achievable, but it will require a ‘united effort’ from all governments worldwide. Strong international cooperation will be crucial to success. 

The report added that a faster pace of climate action in industrialized countries could give emerging and developing countries more time to act, saying significantly more investment in climate protection is needed in poorer nations.

Cost-effective technologies

According to this year’s updated net zero pathway, global renewable power capacity will triple by 2030. Meanwhile, the annual rate of energy efficiency improvements will double, sales of electric vehicles and heat pumps will rise sharply, and energy sector methane emissions will fall by 75%.

Based on proven and often cost-effective technologies for lowering emissions, these strategies deliver more than 80% of the reductions needed by the decade’s end.

Removing carbon

The report warns that a failure to sufficiently step up ambition and implementation between now and 2030 would create additional climate risks and make achieving the 1.5°C goal dependent on the massive deployment of carbon removal technologies, which are expensive and unproven at scale.

“Removing carbon from the atmosphere is very costly. We must do everything possible to stop putting it there in the first place,” said IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol.

Birol: “The pathway to 1.5°C has narrowed in the past two years, but clean energy technologies keep it open. With international momentum building behind key global targets such as tripling renewable capacity and doubling energy efficiency by 2030, which would together lead to a stronger decline in fossil fuel demand this decade, the COP28 climate summit in Dubai is a vital opportunity to commit to stronger ambition and implementation in the remaining years of this critical decade.”

‘Net Zero Emissions by 2050’

In May 2021, the IEA published its landmark report, Net Zero Emissions by 2050: A Roadmap for the Global Energy Sector. The report set out a narrow but feasible pathway for the global energy sector to contribute to the Paris Agreement’s goal of limiting the rise in global temperatures to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.

The 2023 update of the Net Zero Roadmap surveys the complex and dynamic landscape. It sets out an updated pathway to net zero by 2050, taking account of the critical developments that have occurred since 2021.