If current trends continue, the demand for air conditioning could triple by 2050. This is the warning from the Global Cooling Watch 2050 study, published by the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP) on the sidelines of COP30, the UN climate summit that started on Monday in Belem, Brazil.
The increase is thought to be due to population growth and rising prosperity, to more extended periods of extreme heat, and to greater access by low-income households to more polluting, less efficient cooling systems.
Less polluting cooling solutions
However, air conditioning alone won’t be enough to pull us out of the heat crisis. “That would consume too much energy and overload energy systems,” explains UNEP director Inger Andersen.
If cooling demand triples and efficiency or clean-power measures don’t keep up, the strain on electricity grids, peak loads, and greenhouse gas emissions will be tremendous. UNEP therefore calls for the use of less polluting cooling solutions.
Fundamental right
The use of air conditioning would almost double greenhouse gas emissions (from air conditioning use) compared to 2022. The report states that by 2050, cooling-related greenhouse gas emissions could reach 7.2 billion tons of CO₂e if nothing changes.
Still, access to cooling should be a fundamental right, alongside the rights to water, energy, and sanitation, as deadly heat waves will become more frequent and intense.
UNEP therefore calls for more so-called ‘passive’ solutions, such as shading, manual ventilation, greening, the construction of water features, improved cooling, and even energy-efficient, hybrid cooling systems that combine fans and energy-efficient air conditioning. For example, a fan that removes moisture from the air and thus provides cooling uses less energy than air conditioning.
Global Cooling Pledge
Energy-efficient and nature-based cooling systems could give an additional three billion people access to cooling and save up to $17 trillion by 2050, UNEP has calculated.
To promote sustainable cooling initiatives, the Global Cooling Pledge was launched two years ago at the Dubai climate summit. A total of 72 countries have signed on. They aim to meet the demand for cooling while significantly reducing the associated emissions.
