Belgium’s greenhouse gas emissions, especially CO2, have been falling for over twenty years, but in 2024, they stopped declining and even increased slightly again (about +0.2%) compared with 2023. Although long-term emissions are declining, projections indicate that current plans are not on track to meet EU or national targets for 2030.
The rebound is mainly due to the growth in emissions from the major Flemish industrial sectors, which account for about 29% of Belgium’s total emissions.
Flemish industry and transport
In the north, emissions from metallurgy, steel, chemicals, and refineries increased by 1.2 million tons in 2024, while they fell by about 0.7 million tons in Wallonia.
In the non-industrial sectors, on the other hand, CO2-equivalent emissions decreased by 0.24 million tons between 2023 and 2024. With the exception of road transport, which increased by 0.28 million tons. Transport, mainly road transport (+2% emissions in 2024), and buildings also contributed to some rise.
Transport consistently accounts for a large share of non-ETS emissions – and has historically been one of the few sectors where emissions have not fallen strongly over time.
Energy prices
In addition, energy prices declined slightly in 2024 compared to the previous year. The price of heating oil saw two sharp increases before starting a slow decline. Although gas prices remained high, the decline likely contributed to the slight increase in natural gas consumption.
The rebound in Belgian emissions is not staggering, but it interrupts the long-term downward trend since 1990, the reference year, which had declined by roughly 32.7% over that period.
Transition barometer
Most sectors recorded declines over the entire period 1990-2024. With the notable exception of transport (+18.4%), boosted by the increase in road mobility and the number of kilometres travelled.
In November 2024, the Belgian transition barometer, drawn up by experts from the federal administration, noted that, despite the steady decrease in Belgian emissions since 1990, it will not be possible to achieve climate neutrality at the Belgian level by 2050, nor the binding target for non-ETS sectors in 2030.
“Without a serious acceleration of policies and a deepening of measures, the objectives will be missed,” the second barometer confirmed in November 2025. To achieve climate neutrality by 2050, the rate of reduction of Belgian greenhouse gas emissions would have to double.
