“Sometimes the wrong train takes you to the right place,” goes a well-known saying. It’s a perfect quote to describe the optimism with which the Belgian public railway company NMBS/SNCB viewed its own passenger figures during all those difficult years, because it now turns out that those figures were far too high for years.
Meanwhile, the NMBS/SNCB has seen its profits fall for the second year in a row, partly due to the many strikes. Last year, however, it did manage to reduce its mountain of debt by more than a quarter.
Refining the calculation model
For years, the NMBS/SNCB has presented passenger figures in a more favorable light than the actual data warrants. This has become clear now that the railway company has refined its calculation model. In 2024, for example, 40 million passengers were overcounted: the total was not 245 million, but 205,6 million. And in 2019, before the pandemic, the figure was not 253 million but 230 million.
For 2025, using the more precise counting method, NMBS/SNCB estimates 207,8 million passengers. That represents a 1% increase compared to the previous year, despite 27 days of strikes. “Without those strike days, the number of passengers would have risen by 2,5%,” according to NMBS/SNCB, which emphasizes that passenger numbers continue to grow. “We are not yet back to pre-COVID-19 levels, mainly due to remote work, but there has been strong growth in single-ticket sales.”
Due to season tickets
According to the NMBS/SNCB, their counts were accurate for a long time. However, the rise in teleworking has widened the gap between the measurements and the actual figures. This is due to season tickets: it was assumed that season ticket holders made 468 trips per year, which was accurate for years when people commuted to the office daily, but that is no longer the case.
Teleworking was already possible to a limited extent before the COVID-19 crisis; at that time, an average of 40% of season ticket holders worked from home one day a week, according to the NMBS/SNCB. Since the pandemic, teleworking has become the norm: today, over 70% of subscribers are allowed to work from home three days a week.
To respond to this change, the NMBS/SNCB launched Flex Season Tickets in 2023. By 2025, these already accounted for more than a third of all commuter passes. Because a trip is recorded each time a Flex Pass is used, NMBS/SNCB can now track passenger numbers much more accurately.
Most other tickets are also scanned these days, which provides more accurate data. In addition, NMBS/SNCB collects passenger figures through visual counts by train attendants, sensors at the doors of some trains, and even train weight. “The Desiro trains, and soon the M6s as well, are weighted during the journey. This gives us a good idea of the number of passengers on board”, says Marc Huybrechts, Director of Customer Services at NMBS/SNCB.
Retelling also raises questions
Still, one might question the thorough revision of historical figures and the new counting method. Weighing trains is a valid technique, but you’re still working with an assumed average weight per passenger unit, which is, by definition, an assumption. So, this new method isn’t really accurate either.
Furthermore, in the new management agreement, NMBS has set the goal of transporting 30% more passengers by 2032 – the end of the current contract – compared to 2023. Instead of growing to over 318 million passengers, the target is now approximately 272 million passengers by 2032, based on the corrected figures.
The target of +30% remains the same, but the basis on which it was calculated was 15% too high. NMBS/SNCB still needs to achieve the same growth in train service, train-kilometers, and quality to get those extra people on the trains, but in absolute numbers, it therefore needs to achieve much less.
In other words: If the NMBS/SNCB achieves its 30% target based on the new calculation, it will transport 46 million fewer people in absolute terms than it achieved the same 30% target based on the old figures. This makes a real difference in terms of climate, modal shift, and traffic congestion.
In any case, to reach that 30% increase in travelers, an additional 64 million must be added over the next eight years, a difficult task given last year’s 1% increase.
New campaign
In fact, NMBS/SNCB launched a large-scale campaign this week to encourage commuters and leisure travelers to take the train more often. In particular, the Train+ card is being highlighted during the campaign.
With this option, all fares are calculated on distance. Train+ offers a 40% discount during off-peak hours and on weekends. Six months after its launch, more than 1,3 million travelers had already purchased a Train+ card.
For commuters, NMBS/SNCB is highlighting the 80/20 system. This allows employers to offer their employees completely free commuting by paying 80% of the subscription cost. The government then finances the remaining 20%.
Debt significantly reduced, but the balance is still well in the red
These new passengers are needed not only to meet the goals of the new management contract; NMBS/SNCB is still heavily in debt, even though it has managed to significantly reduce it. The debt currently stands at 1,532 billion euros, compared to 2,146 billion euros in 2024.
This is partly due to several delayed and postponed investments in trains, stations, and digitization. “But even when the effects of those postponed investments are factored out, NMBS/SNCB’s debt has continued to improve since 2022, and at a faster pace than anticipated”, says the railway company.
Operating profit (recurring EBITDA) came in at 54,2 million euros, more than halved from 131,6 million euros in 2022.
The railway company invested more than 820 million euros last year. Of that amount, 350 million went toward rolling stock: 130 new M7 cars were delivered, and the M6 cars underwent a thorough refurbishment. Finally, more than 1,100 new employees were hired. At the beginning of this year, NMBS/SNCB had 16,976 employees.
