The delay in developing additional offshore wind turbines in the Princess Elisabeth Zone (PEZ), an area in the North Sea where new wind farms are planned, will be reflected in the electricity bills of families and businesses. According to the researchers, the delay would be at least five years.
The offshore island is a complex and unprecedented engineering project. Construction and material costs rose sharply after COVID, inflation, supply chain disruptions, and the war in Ukraine. Europe also underestimated how quickly transmission infrastructure would become critical for electrification.
The total additional costs would rise to 400 million euros in 2030, according to calculations by research institute VITO within the EnergyVille cooperation platform.
Strategic for energy independence
The Princess Elisabeth Zone is Belgium’s next major offshore wind expansion area in the North Sea. It is planned to add roughly 3.5 GW of offshore wind capacity, enough to power millions of households and become a major pillar of Belgian electrification policy.
The project includes new offshore wind farms, offshore energy hubs, and international interconnectors linking Belgium to other North Sea countries. The federal government and grid operator Elia Group have long described it as strategic for energy independence, price stability, and industrial competitiveness.
Without those wind farms, Belgium still needs electricity. So the missing power, which accounts for about 13 to 15% of annual consumption, must come from gas plants, imports, additional solar, and more fossil-fuel backup capacity.
The loss of wind capacity would be compensated for by electricity from natural gas, which entails higher CO2 emissions and, therefore, higher CO2 taxes (under the European Union Emissions Trading System) that are passed through to consumer bills.
Additional costs
As a result, the final electricity bill in 2030 would end up between 4 and 7% higher than in the earlier scenario, in which the PEZ would already be fully developed, amounting to some 200 to 400 million euros in additional costs.
If the construction of the wind farms were to be delayed by ten years, the difference in the energy bill would rise to 5 to 10% by 2035. The exact percentage will depend on future gas prices, carbon prices, nuclear availability, battery deployment, and EU grid integration.
‘A major risk’
In addition, the report points out that the lack of interconnections for offshore wind energy with other countries also represents “a major risk”: this, too, will lead to increased gas consumption, more price shocks, and greater energy imports.
Without strong interconnections, excess wind cannot move efficiently between countries, price shocks spread more easily, and backup gas capacity remains necessary.
Economic impact
With interconnections, Belgium can export excess wind power, import cheap renewable electricity, stabilize prices, and reduce its dependence on gas. That’s why EnergyVille says delays there may have an even bigger economic impact than the wind farms alone.
Belgium will also become more dependent on imports, which is risky because Belgium then depends more on neighboring markets. Neighboring countries may also face shortages, and prices can spike regionally during periods of stress. That became very visible during the 2022 energy crisis. Countries with greater domestic renewable energy were generally less exposed.
