An electricity shortage is looming in the Netherlands. By 2030, the country will no longer be able to meet the full electricity demand.

High-voltage grid operator TenneT warned of this on Wednesday in its Security of Supply Monitor 2026, an annual advisory report to the Ministry of Economic Affairs.

TenneT estimates the power shortage at a maximum average of about 4 hours per year, which could rise to 37-46 hours in 2035.

A temporary electricity shortage does not necessarily mean that the entire country is without power. However, in the event of such an electricity shortage, the lights could go out in parts of the country, for example.

Potential problems will primarily occur during the morning and evening hours in winter, as households and businesses typically use the most electricity at those times.

Increasing demand

The main explanation for shortages is that electricity demand is constantly increasing, for example, due to the rise in electric cars. At the same time, production capacity is limited.

And although solar, wind, batteries, and demand-side management are increasing, TenneT says that they do not fully compensate for prolonged periods of scarcity.

If electricity demand were to increase very rapidly, a shortage could arise as early as 2028. If demand decreases, problems will not arise until 2035.

Time for action

The Dutch high-voltage grid operator TenneT is calling on the government to take swift action. According to the grid operator, the Netherlands must start building strategic reserves, introduce a capacity mechanism (to compensate companies for keeping capacity available, as in Belgium), and focus more on demand response.

TenneT also believes that the Netherlands should actively seek alignment with neighboring countries, Belgium, Germany, and Denmark, to build up reserves together.

Minister of Climate and Green Growth, Stientje van Veldhoven (D66), has, in any case, already indicated that she takes the situation “very seriously”.

What about Belgium?

When comparing the situation in the Netherlands with Belgium, we see that the country exhibits the same structural trend (more electrification, more renewable energy, need for controllable/flexible capacity).

Belgium, however, already has a Capacity Remuneration Mechanism (CRM), which pays for capacity to be available during scarcity.

Belgium introduced the CRM in 2021. In other words, the “insurance mechanism” in Belgium has already been made operational, with auctions and explicit volumes per delivery year.

However, Belgium is not an island of certainty: Belgian supply also relies on imports, French nuclear availability, gas power plants, batteries, and demand response.