The federal energy regulator CREG, the Commission for Electricity and Gas Regulation, warns that the numerous projects planned by high-voltage grid operator Elia over the coming years will lead to high electricity rates for households and businesses. 

The plans include, among other things, the energy island, new high-voltage lines such as Ventilus and Boucle du Hainaut, or the new high-voltage line connecting to the United Kingdom (Nautilus).

Grid tariffs

As the high-voltage grid operator, Elia must invest sufficiently to maintain the grid. Among other things, it is responsible for bringing ashore the energy generated by wind farms off the Flemish coast and distributing it further inland. The same applies to renewable energy generated onshore and injected into the grid.

Elia is permitted to pass on the costs it incurs for this purpose through the grid tariffs charged to residential and business customers via their electricity bills. However, the federal energy regulator CREG warns that the substantial investments planned by Elia could lead to a sharp increase in grid tariffs.

For the 2028-2031 period, CREG expects a 50%-60% increase, and for 2031-2038, a 40%-50% increase. Elia itself provisionally estimates the investments for the projects (for the 2028-2038 period) at “approximately 24 billion euros”.

Electrification of the economy

Elia emphasizes the societal necessity of the plans, citing the rapid growth in electricity demand among businesses and households. After all, the high-voltage grid operator must ensure that Belgium can meet the needs of the coming years and decades. 

According to Elia, these investments are necessary for the electrification of the economy: for more heat pumps and electric vehicles, additional renewable energy generation, and the electrification of industrial processes.

For an average Flemish household, the distribution grid tariff currently typically ranges from 400 to 500 euros per year. In just over ten years, that component of the electricity bill could therefore rise to more than 1,000 euros per household.

Warning mechanism

The CREG therefore proposes that approval be granted only to projects that are already mature, not to those still in the conceptual phase. The regulator calls for transparency from the grid operator, given the cost of all the projects, and for a warning mechanism for cases where a project significantly exceeds its cost estimates or implementation timelines.

Voka, the Flemish business organization, also warns about affordability. “Transmission grid tariffs for companies will have effectively doubled by January 1, 2025, and further increases threaten to put additional pressure on the competitiveness of our industry. We therefore call for all grid investments – and the energy island project in particular – to be carried out with due restraint and cost-efficiency.”

But some of the projects are necessary. For instance, the CREG states that failing to implement the Boucle du Hainaut – the extension of the Ventilus route that transports electricity from North Sea wind farms inland across Walloon territory – would have significant consequences for the capacity for new grid connections. The high-voltage line is crucial for bringing additional offshore wind energy inland, exchanging more electricity with neighboring countries, and preventing further grid congestion.