Transport & Environment says Europe is on track to produce enough battery cells to meet its own demand by 2030. On paper, that sounds like a major step toward independence from Asia. But recent failures, delays, and new Chinese investments in Europe show that the reality is more complicated.
According to the environmental lobby group T&E, Europe should have sufficient battery-cell production capacity by the end of the decade, provided that the projects currently considered realistic actually materialize.
The organization argues that Europe is moving from a shortage of battery factories to a situation in which domestic production can meet demand for electric cars.
That is certainly possible. Large battery plants are already operating in countries such as Poland, Hungary and Germany, while new factories are being built in France, Spain, and elsewhere.
But there is an important distinction between batteries made in Europe and batteries made by European companies.
Northvolt showed the risks
Europe’s own battery industry has suffered several setbacks in recent years. The most striking example is Northvolt. The Swedish company was once seen as Europe’s best chance of building a home-grown rival to the large Asian battery manufacturers.
Despite billions of euros in investment and orders from major carmakers, Northvolt struggled to get its factories running at the required scale and eventually collapsed.
Other European projects have been delayed, scaled back, or canceled. Automotive Cells Company, backed by Stellantis and Mercedes-Benz, has also reconsidered parts of its expansion plans.
T&E itself acknowledges that around a quarter of the battery capacity announced in Europe since 2022 has already been canceled or put on hold. That makes 2030 forecasts less certain than the headline figures suggest.
Made in Europe, owned elsewhere
Another issue is ownership. Asian groups such as LG Energy Solution, Samsung SDI, SK On, and CATL own a large share of Europe’s existing battery production. T&E estimates that more than 70% of active European battery-cell capacity is currently controlled by non-European companies.
That does not necessarily make those factories less useful. A battery produced in Hungary or Poland still creates European jobs and reduces the need to ship finished cells from Asia. But it also means Europe remains dependent on foreign companies for much of the technology and know-how.
Volkswagen offers a good example. The German carmaker is deepening its cooperation with Chinese battery specialist Gotion, in which VW is already a major shareholder.
Gotion recently announced further progress with solid-state batteries. These replace the liquid electrolyte in today’s batteries with a solid material and are widely seen as one of the next big steps for electric cars.
In theory, they can store considerably more energy per unit weight, while also improving safety and potentially reducing charging times.
More than 400 Wh/kg
Gotion says its Jinshi solid-state cells have passed demanding puncture and high-temperature safety tests and is now targeting an energy density of 400 Wh/kg.
That would be almost twice the roughly 205 Wh/kg achieved by today’s best LFP cells and around 50% more than the approximately 265 Wh/kg possible with high-energy NMC batteries. Its current pilot-generation solid-state cells are already claimed to reach around 350 Wh/kg.
Gotion has established pilot production and designed a 2 GWh production line, although mass production is still years away.
That makes the technology relevant well beyond laboratory experiments. If solid-state batteries can eventually be mass-produced affordably, they could allow electric cars to travel farther without requiring ever-larger, heavier battery packs.
Gotion is also aiming to bring the cost down toward roughly $150 per kWh. That would still be almost three times the roughly $50–60/kWh currently paid for mass-produced Chinese LFP cells, showing that solid-state batteries would initially remain a premium technology.
For Europe, however, the bigger point is who is developing that next generation of battery technology. Gotion is Chinese, but is simultaneously becoming more closely involved with Volkswagen and its European battery activities.
The next dependency?
This creates a somewhat paradoxical situation. Europe could build enough battery factories to supply its own car industry while still relying heavily on Chinese or Korean companies for the technology inside those factories.
The same problem exists further up the supply chain. Europe still imports much of the processed material needed to make battery cells, particularly from China.
So T&E’s basic conclusion is not necessarily unrealistic. Europe may indeed have enough physical battery-production capacity by 2030. But that is different from saying Europe will have an independent battery industry.
