Heat now claims roughly as many lives worldwide as HIV or malaria, according to the latest Lancet Countdown report, which estimates 710,000 heat-related deaths in 2023.

As scientists warn that climate change is becoming a global health emergency, the European Commission has unveiled a new climate resilience framework requiring member states to prepare for increasingly extreme conditions – including a scenario of 3°C global warming by the end of the century. The estimated price of adapting Europe’s infrastructure and economy is €70 billion annually.

‘Globally growing impact on health and survival’

According to the Lancet report, average heat-related mortality has increased by about 36 percent over a decade, and heat as a cause of death is now of a similar order of magnitude to malaria and HIV. 

The researchers attribute seven out of ten of those heat-related deaths to human-induced climate change. They warn of a “globally growing impact on health and survival.”

Global warming

The past eleven years have been the warmest ever recorded. As greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise, the Earth will likely warm beyond the 1.5-degree limit the Paris Agreement aims to stay within.

Adaptation measures will be necessary, as greenhouse gases continue to accumulate in our atmosphere. We are currently heading toward a structural 1.5-degree warming by 2030 (in reality, this is already the case, but by then it will be truly structural).

At the current rate, this will reach 2 degrees by 2050, and as much as 3 degrees by 2100. The current consensus is to keep warming below 2 degrees. Still, climate scientists say the world is already treading on thin ice at 1.5 degrees of warming.

Insufficient positive developments

Climate change has diverse health consequences. Heat and drought threaten harvests and drive food insecurity, while diseases can spread more quickly.

While there may be positive developments, such as the growth of renewable energy and the adoption of electric vehicles, the pace of change is too slow, the scale is too small, and it is failing to reach the people who need it most.

European action

Meanwhile, the climate crisis is making itself felt more acutely, including in Europe. Think of the increasing dry summers, forest fires, extreme rainfall and low river water levels… An estimated 35,000 heat-related deaths occurred in Europe this summer, including in Belgium.

The European Union therefore calls for action. According to the European Commission, the EU should invest 70 billion euros each year to better protect us from climate disruption, and to sufficiently fortify our infrastructure and economy. The damage already runs into the billions of euros, according to the VUB’s previous estimate.

The European Commission said this during its presentation of the EU Framework for Climate Resilience, including a proposed European Climate Resilience Law. The initiative moves beyond disaster response toward risk prevention, requiring national authorities to identify vulnerabilities, assign responsibilities, and plan investments.

For the sake of clarity: The EU has not approved any budget. The 70-billion-euro figure estimates total investment needs, involving public and private finance. The proposal includes no dedicated fund of that size.

Every euro invested can yield double, or even ten times, that amount when you factor in the damage that can be avoided, the Commission states. It sees a major opportunity for European companies to innovate, grow, and potentially become global leaders in climate adaptation.

The tenth annual global Lancet Countdown assessment was produced by 146 experts from 71 institutions and examines 54 indicators of climate-related health risks and policy responses.