ACEA, the European car manufacturers’ federation, remains cautiously optimistic about its economic outlook, with the European economy expected to grow by 1.1% in 2025, followed by a rise to 1.5% in 2026 amid trade tensions and the United States’ tariff changes. Inflation is forecast to ease from 2.3% in 2025 to an average of 1.9% in 2026.

Global auto markets showed a mixed performance, with overall registrations rising 5%, but Europe lagged, with registrations down 2.4%. Battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) accounted for 15.6% (up from 12.5%) in Europe. Belgium proved to be a front-runner in BEV adoption, with 32.8% of new car registrations, just behind the Netherlands (35%).

The European commercial vehicle market (vans, trucks, buses) faced significant headwinds, with all segments seeing declines in registrations. Looking at vans only, for instance, North America posted a 10% increase; China, a 4.2% increase; and Europe, a 12% decrease.

Europe lags the global car market

ACEA’s H1 2025 Economic and Market Report tracks the global and European auto sector, spotlighting sales, production, trade balances, and the accelerating shift to electric vehicles. It positions the EU industry within worldwide trends and identifies risks such as Chinese import growth and weak domestic demand.

Examining the car markets, Europe lagged, with overall registrations declining by 2.4% and the EU market down 1.9%. However, some markets bucked the trend: Türkiye (+5.4%), EFTA countries (+4.5%), and the UK (+3.5%). Spain experienced strong growth (+13.9%), while France (– 7.9%), Germany (– 4.7%), and Italy (– 3.6%) declined.

BEVs made up 15.6%

Regarding the powertrain mix in the EU, the ACEA report shows that battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) made up 15.6% of new registrations (up from 12.5%). Hybrid-electric vehicles (HEVs + PHEVs) captured a 34.8 % market share, conventional ICE vehicles (petrol + diesel) declined to 37.8 %.

Examining production figures, global car production increased by 3.5%, reaching 37.7 million units. Asia dominated, accounting for 60.1% of output, while the EU’s share dropped to 15.9% of production, which declined by 2.8%.

Germany, Spain, Czechia, France, and Slovakia remain key production hubs, producing combined 74 % of cars sold in the EU. Imports into the EU increased in volume (3.5%), notably from China (+36.2% in units). Key import sources for new cars were China (17.6% in value), Turkey, and South Korea.

Exports declined by 5.5 % in units. Key export destinations are the UK (largest by value with +8.1 % growth), the US (–13.6 %), Turkey (strong rebound), and China. However, exports to China plummeted by 42.2% due to the ongoing price war and the surge in local brands attracting consumers in their homeland.

Belgium standing out

Belgium saw a 1.3% increase in new car registrations, while the EU average was down 1.9%, standing out as one of the few EU countries with growth in 2025 so far. 32.8 % of new car registrations were battery-electric vehicles (well above the EU average of 15.6 %). Plug-in hybrid sales are also significant, reflecting strong company car incentives and fiscal policies.

Belgium is no longer a major passenger car producer compared to Germany, Spain, France, Slovakia, and Hungary, following the closures of Renault, Ford, and Audi factories, with only Volvo remaining. However, it is a key hub for automotive imports and exports, notably through Antwerp-Bruges port in Zeebrugge.

Rising EU imports from China (+36% by volume) are particularly relevant, as many of these vehicles transit through Belgian ports before being distributed throughout Europe.

Overall downturn in commercial vehicles

Looking at commercial vehicles, Belgium is part of the overall EU downturn (a decline of 13.2 %) in light commercial vehicles. Germany saw a 14.7% decline, France a 12%, and Italy an 11.7% decline. Spain was an outlier, with a +11.2 % increase. Truck registrations fell by 15.4 %. Heavy trucks dropped by 14.5 %, and medium trucks by ~20%. Bus registrations declined 4.4 %.

The ACEA report highlights that the EU automotive sector is highly exposed to global trade flows, as approximately one-third of EU-made cars are exported. It sees geopolitics mainly as downside risks — especially in trade with China and the US — and frames them as external uncertainties that could undermine Europe’s fragile auto market recovery.