China announced on Wednesday at the United Nations climate summit that it will reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 7 to 10 percent by 2035, a figure the European Union considers insufficient. 

It was Chinese President Xi Jinping who presented the climate goals during a video address. It is the first time that China, currently the world’s second-largest economy and largest emitter of greenhouse gases, has announced a reduction in emissions.

Xi announced that by 2035, more than 30% of China’s energy consumption is expected to come from non-fossil fuels. Wind and solar energy capacity is expected to be six times larger than in 2020, reaching a total of 3,600 gigawatts.

Modest and insufficient

Xi also mentioned goals of making ‘new energy vehicles’ mainstream, expanding forest stock, and broadening the coverage of China’s carbon market to high-emission industries. Some details, however, remain vague. For instance, China has not (in the public announcement) clearly spelled out how it will reduce coal use.

In short, the pledge is relatively modest (in ambitiousness). Overall, most observers consider it a step in the right direction, but insufficient. Still, it represents a symbolic shift in China’s approach by putting a floor under emissions rather than just aiming at intensity or growth limits.

‘Disappointing’

“China’s pledge falls well short of what we believe is both achievable and necessary,” said European Commissioner for Climate Wopke Hoekstra. “This level of ambition is clearly disappointing and, given China’s significant carbon footprint, makes it much harder to achieve global climate goals. We will continue to push China (and others) to go beyond the current level of ambition, and respect our joint commitments under the Paris Agreement.” 

China accounts for 30 percent of global CO2 emissions. According to experts, Beijing would need to reduce its emissions by approximately 30 percent over the next decade to meet the Paris climate target of limiting temperature rises to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.

‘Formulated cautiously’

However, there is a good chance that Beijing will exceed the stated targets, according to Chim Lee of the Economist Intelligence Unit, as reported in the newspaper De Morgen. “Chinese plans are always deliberately formulated cautiously,” says the analyst specializing in China’s energy transition. “China’s approach is that the goals must be achievable. We can consider this the absolute minimum that China will do.”

China is already heavily investing in clean energy, EVs, grid expansion, etc. The announced renewable/solar/wind targets may, in many cases, align with current trends. Anyway, if China overdelivers, that could help close part of the global ‘ambition gap’ in climate action. But if it underdelivers or backslides, the world will remain off track for 1.5 °C.

Limited ambitions

The European Union hasn’t exactly shown its most ambitious side either. It missed the deadline for submitting the national target because member states were unable to reach a consensus on the 2035 target. And that’s precisely what some MEPs are accusing the EU of. They even see it as an explanation for China’s limited ambitions.

“They could have been higher if the European Union had set clearer targets,” said Peter Liese, climate coordinator for the European People’s Party, which also includes Ursula von der Leyen and Wopke Hoekstra.

“It is deeply shameful that Europe, which led the way on climate, is not delivering on its own promise on time,” said MEP Sara Matthieu (Greens), environmental coordinator for her group.

30th COP30 in November

Meanwhile, the member states hope that an agreement can still be reached before the COP in Brazil in November. If the EU fails to present a strong position, it risks damaging its image on the international stage, making it challenging to continue playing a leading role.

The United Nations Secretary-General, Antonio Guterres, said: “The science demands action. The law commands it. The economics compel it. And people are calling for it.”The 30th UN Climate Change Conference (COP30) will open on November 10th in Belém, Brazil.