Fare evasion on the Belgian railway company NMBS/SNCB is clearly on the rise. This is once again evident from the results of a recent large-scale ticket inspection.

We are observing a similar trend in neighboring countries, along with higher fines. However, there is one notable exception: Luxembourg, because traveling by public transport there does not require a ticket.

Sharp increase

During the first two weekends of December, NMBS/SNCB checked more than 50,000 passengers on over 570 trains. Approximately 7% of them lacked a valid ticket.

If you look at the figures for recent years, the number of fare dodgers is clearly on the rise. In 2023, for example, 497,000 fare evasion cases were reported. In 2024, the number of cases rose to nearly 700,000, an increase of approximately 40% compared with the previous year.

40% more passengers checked

Ticket fraud is not only a financial problem for NMBS/SNCB, with losses amounting to around 26 million euros per year, but also has safety consequences. Discussions about missing tickets are a significant cause of aggression toward train staff. Additional checks, therefore, increase the visibility of staff and police services, thereby enhancing passengers’ sense of security.

According to NMBS/SNCB, approximately 40% more passengers were screened this year than last year. Large-scale checks will continue regularly next year – passengers who cannot present a valid ticket risk a 90-euro fine. Repeat offenders can be fined up to 500 euros.

Apropos, the new ticket offer from NMBS/SNCB has gotten off to a powerful start. During the first month, no fewer than 418,000 travelers purchased a Train+ card, half of which were annual passes. This means that a quarter of all occasional train travelers have already traveled with Train+. Among seniors, this figure was as high as half.

Access gates versus an open system

Fare evasion is a structural and widespread phenomenon in many public transport systems that lack physical fare gates. Between 2018 and 2023, for example, the number of fines for fare evasion issued by the Flemish public transport company De Lijn rose sharply, from around 35,000 to more than 60,000 per year, despite increased checks.

In Brussels, recent figures from MIVB/STIB, where the metro does have access gates, indicate that around 6-7% of passengers checked did not have a valid ticket.

With these figures, Belgium, and therefore also NMBS/SNCB, ranks in the middle range of European countries in terms of the percentage of fare evasion. Here, too, we see that countries with gates, such as the United Kingdom and Spain, score higher in preventing fare evasion than countries with open systems that rely more on human checks and higher fines.

The UK has one of the strictest control systems in Europe, with physical gates at almost all major stations. The percentage of fare evaders ranges from 3.4% to 4.8%. In Scandinavian countries, known for their “high trust” systems, or open stations, but with high fines, the fare evasion rate also fluctuates between 3% and 5%.

Italy, on the other hand, has historically experienced higher rates of fraud, particularly on regional trains and urban transport. On national trains, particularly the Frecciarossa high-speed trains, fare evasion is below 1% due to mandatory reservations and strict platform controls.

Regional and urban transport is a different story. In cities such as Rome and Milan, the percentage of fare evasion on buses and trams is estimated between 5% and 10%.

Cheap tickets mean less cheating

France also faces a significant fraud problem, which costs the SNCF approximately 200 million euros in annual revenue. On TER regional trains, the fraud rate averages 7%-10%; on RER and suburban trains in the Paris region, it is 9%; and on trams, it is 11%-16%. The Dutch railways NS is also seeing an increase in the number of fines issued – an estimated 400,000 in 2025.

This trend is less evident in Germany and Luxembourg. The latter country lacks statistics on fare evasion because public transport is free there. In Germany, on the other hand, the introduction of the Deutschlandticket, or €49 per month for all regional public transport, has led to a decline in the number of fare dodgers at the regional level.

Nationwide, the percentage of fare dodgers on Deutsche Bahn is estimated at 3%-5%. In large cities such as Berlin or Dresden, random checks sometimes show a rate of around 5%.

AI is watching

Another trend is that some transport companies are using AI to predict which routes have the highest rates of fare evasion. AI analyzes large amounts of data to identify patterns.

Farde dodging often peaks during rush hour or late at night. Routes between large student cities or routes with many events, such as soccer games or festivals, also usually score higher on fraud.

AI is also used in systems with gates to see where people “sneak through” or where there are many irregularities in transactions. Once the AI identifies a “hotspot”, the system sends inspectors or security teams to that specific location or train.

The NS reported that such targeted deployment increased the likelihood of detection on specific routes by 20%-30%, without requiring additional staff.