According to a new study by Grant Foster and Stefan Rahmstorf from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, the Earth is warming faster than ever before.
The study also showed that the rate of warming in the last decade was higher than in any previous decade since the beginning of instrumental records in 1880. The paper was published in March 2026 in the journal Geophysical Research Letters.
Steady trend
The human-driven heating rate has almost doubled since 2015. Between 1970 and 2015, global mean surface temperature tended to follow a steady trend, rising at an average rate of 0.2°C per decade.
However, by 2015, that changed – over the past ten years – and the world has been heating at a rate of about 0.35°C per decade. The scientists excluded the effects of natural fluctuations such as El Niño, volcanic eruptions, and solar cycles.
If this pace continues, the 1.5-degree limit set by the Paris Climate Agreement will be structurally exceeded before 2030, scientists at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and others warn.
Near-apocalyptic ‘tipping points.’
Experts point out that current figures fall within the range of climate models, but that the window for limiting warming to 2 degrees is rapidly closing.
Scientists fear that warming of between 1.5 and 2 degrees Celsius is enough to trigger near-apocalyptic ‘tipping points’. The impact of a warming world is already being felt across the globe – from more frequent and intense natural disasters to warmer temperatures.
The impacts only stand to get worse: a separate study published earlier this week in the journal Nature found that, on average, coastal sea levels are eight inches to a foot higher than many maps and models of the world’s coastlines indicate, meaning that hundreds of millions more people are closer to experiencing rising sea levels than previously estimated.
More emissions and fewer sulfate aerosols
The study also highlights several possible contributors. CO₂ and other greenhouse gases are still rising globally. The International Maritime Organization introduced low-sulfur fuel rules in 2020, which reduced sulfate aerosols. These aerosols previously reflected sunlight and slightly cooled the climate, so removing them may reveal more warming.
In January, the World Meteorological Organization confirmed that the past three years had been the warmest on record and that emissions of polluting gases had reached record highs, while systems such as oceans and forests that absorb CO2 may be starting to falter.
Time for action
The outcome we see will largely depend on whether ambitious action is taken worldwide. The rate of further warming now depends entirely on how quickly global fossil fuel emissions are reduced to zero, the researchers conclude.
“How quickly the Earth continues to warm ultimately depends on how rapidly we reduce global CO₂ emissions from fossil fuels to zero,” said Stefan Rahmstorf, researcher at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and lead author of the study.
