The spike in interest in electric vehicles triggered by the Iran war and the resulting oil price surge is real. But treating it as just another short-lived ‘fuel panic effect’ risks missing the bigger shift underway.

Europe spends around €67 billion a year importing oil just to keep its cars running. That structural dependency, rather than any single geopolitical crisis, is the real driver behind the shift to electric vehicles. It’s exposing a structural weakness in Europe’s economy, and electric mobility is increasingly seen as part of the solution.

Across markets, the short-term reaction is clear. In France, data from platforms such as La Centrale and Aramis Auto show that searches and purchases of used electric cars have surged, in some cases nearly doubling as fuel prices approached €2 per litre.

In Germany and the United States, industry data and dealer feedback indicate a similar rise in online interest in electric and hybrid vehicles. This is classic consumer behaviour: when driving costs spike, people start looking for alternatives.

Far beyond fuel prices

But this time, the context is different. The latest ‘State of Transport 2026’ analysis from Transport & Environment (T&E) shows that the issue goes far beyond fuel prices.

It is about Europe’s structural dependence on imported oil. According to T&E, cars alone cost the European Union around €67 billion a year in oil imports, with road transport consuming roughly one billion barrels annually. That dependency is not theoretical: when global oil prices rise, European households and businesses feel the impact almost immediately.

Recent history illustrates this clearly. During the 2022 energy crisis, when oil prices exceeded $100 per barrel, European drivers paid tens of billions of euros more at the pump, while total fossil fuel import costs surged dramatically.

EU imports only 6% via Hormuz

The current Iran-related shock follows the same pattern. Europe imports only a limited share of its oil directly via the Strait of Hormuz – roughly 6% of crude imports – but that is almost beside the point.

With around 20% of global oil supply passing through the chokepoint, any disruption immediately feeds into global prices. Europe may not depend heavily on the route physically, but it remains fully exposed economically.

Electric vehicles change that equation. T&E estimates that the nearly eight million electric cars already on European roads will avoid around 46 million barrels of oil consumption in 2025, saving close to €3 billion in imports.

€140 per month versus €65

More importantly for consumers, EV drivers are far less exposed to price volatility. At current price levels, driving a petrol car in Europe costs on average around €140 per month in fuel, compared with roughly €65 to charge an electric vehicle, according to Transport & Environment and related analyses. In periods of crisis, the gap widens further, with fossil-fuel drivers bearing the brunt of price spikes.

For many private buyers, the oil shock is less a trigger for immediate switching than a shift in how they evaluate the decision altogether. Until now, electric cars have often been judged on upfront price, while the total cost of ownership – including fuel or electricity, maintenance, and resale – has remained poorly understood outside company car drivers.

The surge in fuel prices changes that calculus. It makes running costs visible and volatile, forcing consumers to confront what driving actually costs month to month.

While electricity prices are not immune to energy shocks, their effects are far more limited. According to Transport & Environment, the current crisis could push European electricity prices up by around 10–12%, largely because gas-fired power plants still set the marginal price in many markets.

By contrast, petrol and diesel costs rise much more sharply when oil prices spike. As a result, even in a crisis scenario, electric vehicles remain significantly cheaper to run — and far less exposed to volatility.

Psychological shift

In that context, EVs begin to look less like an expensive purchase and more like a way to stabilise expenses. The psychological shift is subtle but important: the question moves from “can I afford an EV?” to “can I afford to stay on petrol or diesel?”

Even if fuel prices ease again, that reframing of total cost – and the realisation that combustion cars carry a hidden exposure to price shocks – is likely to persist.

This is why the narrative is shifting. What was once framed primarily as a climate issue is increasingly being seen through the lens of economic resilience and energy security. Some Belgian media have captured this shift by describing electric vehicles as a ‘bouclier économique’, an economic shield against geopolitical shocks.

The implication is that the current surge in EV interest is not just a temporary reaction. It reflects a deeper structural logic that is becoming more visible to consumers and policymakers alike.

That structural trend was already underway. According to data from the European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association (ACEA), battery-electric vehicles reached around 19% of new car registrations in the EU at the start of 2026.

That is up significantly from the previous year, while petrol and diesel cars continued to lose market share. Hybrid vehicles now account for the largest share of the market. In parallel, Chinese manufacturers such as BYD are rapidly expanding their presence in Europe, underlining the global momentum behind electrification.

The impact of the oil shock varies

Gobally, however, the impact of the current oil shock varies. In Asia, where oil import dependence is high and affordable electric models are widely available, the crisis is likely to accelerate adoption in a lasting way.

China already demonstrates how electrification can reduce oil import bills at scale. In contrast, in the United States, the effect appears more cyclical. While interest in electrified vehicles rises when fuel prices increase, structural barriers, such as gaps in charging infrastructure and policy uncertainty, mean that much of the shift may favour hybrids rather than fully electric cars unless high prices persist.

Europe sits somewhere in between, but with stronger structural momentum. Electrification is embedded in EU regulation, industrial policy, and climate targets.

At the same time, the transition remains incomplete. As Transport & Environment warns, weakening electrification policies could significantly increase Europe’s future oil import bill, reinforcing the continent’s vulnerability to external shocks.

For Belgium, the picture is more nuanced. There is little evidence so far of a sudden, war-driven surge in electric vehicle registrations. The Belgian market is heavily influenced by company cars, in which purchasing decisions are shaped by fiscal rules and leasing cycles rather than by immediate changes in fuel prices. This dampens short-term reactions.

Belgium fits the European pattern

Yet structurally, Belgium fits the European pattern described by T&E. It is highly dependent on imported energy, faces relatively high fuel costs, and has one of the strongest fiscal frameworks for electric vehicles in Europe through company car taxation. That suggests the impact of the current crisis may be less visible in the short term but more durable over time.

Ultimately, the current oil shock should be seen less as a turning point than as a stress test. It reveals how exposed fossil-based mobility remains to geopolitical disruption, while reinforcing the economic case for electrification that was already building.

The surge in EV interest may fade if oil prices stabilise. But the conditions that produced it – structural oil dependence, price volatility, and improving EV economics – are unlikely to disappear. In that sense, the current crisis is not creating a new trend. It is accelerating one that was already well underway.