Higher airfare prices are inevitable. That’s what Willie Walsh, CEO of the International Air Transport Association (IATA), said at a meeting in Singapore. Even after a cease-fire in Iran.
According to Walsh, the aviation industry will likely continue to face disruptions in jet fuel supply for months to come, even if Iran does reopen the Strait of Hormuz or allows more ships to pass through.
As a result, jet fuel will remain more expensive for the time being than it was before the outbreak of the Iran conflict.
Nearly 1 billion liters per day
Since the outbreak of the Iran conflict, airlines worldwide have been grappling with fuel costs that have more than doubled. What’s more, several airlines have also canceled flights due to looming kerosene shortages in some regions.
After US President Donald Trump said he had agreed to a two-week ceasefire with Iran, the price of oil dropped below $100 per barrel on Wednesday – earlier on Tuesday, it had been well over $117.
But even if oil tankers can once again sail through the Strait of Hormuz, through which about one-fifth of the world’s oil trade normally passes, Walsh says all the problems won’t be immediately resolved, meaning that jet fuel prices will likely remain high for quite some time.
Major European airlines, including Lufthansa and Air France-KLM, have already warned that they will have to pass on the higher fuel prices to passengers.
Globally, the aviation industry is estimated to consume approximately 300 to 320 million tons of jet fuel per year in 2026, which amounts to nearly 1 billion liters per day. According to the latest figures, European Union countries consume about 46 million tons of jet fuel per year.
Addis Ababa is the new Super Hub
Air traffic in the Middle East itself has also dropped dramatically due to the war. For example, many airlines no longer fly to Dubai, which is normally a major aviation hub. According to Walsh, once the situation is safe again, that could change quickly. “I think the Gulf hubs will recover, and quite quickly.”
Nevertheless, now that the traditional big three – Dubai, Doha, and Abu Dhabi – are no longer serving as safe havens for transfer passengers, we’re seeing a rapid shift toward other hubs. The biggest winner is Istanbul Airport, which now functions as the primary gateway between East and West.
Delhi and Mumbai are also making a huge comeback as serious alternatives for transfers to Southeast Asia and Australia.
But the Ethiopian capital, Addis Ababa, in particular, is positioning itself as the new ‘Super Hub,’ with Ethiopian Airlines cleverly filling the gap left by instability in the Gulf Region. In the first months of 2026, the airport saw a 31% increase in available seats.
Furthermore, construction began in January on a massive new mega-airport near Addis Ababa, which is ultimately expected to handle 110 million passengers per year.
