According to the NGO Transport & Environment (T&E), the latest demands of the European car industry for weaker climate targets could result in an extra €74bn of oil imports, “just as interest in buying EVs reaches new peaks”.That’s according to T&E analysis of a leaked position paper issued by the Association of European Car Manufacturers (ACEA) to Environment Ministers in March.

T&E says the irresponsible proposal would delay the rollout of more affordable EV models at a time of high petrol prices and would drastically increase oil dependency, compared with the current EU car CO2 targets.

Significant weakening

“The ACEA paper calls for the averaging of carmakers’ 2030 EU CO2 targets over five years, a significant weakening compared to the EU Commission’s proposal to average over three years,” indicates T&E. It also calls for the cancellation of the new utility factor that more accurately counts plug-in hybrid vehicles’ (PHEV) emissions.

“The German government yesterday adopted ACEA’s position of prolonging sales of polluting PHEVs, a move that, if implemented, would only delay the EU car industry’s transition to fully electric cars and widen the gap with China,” T&E points out.

If ACEA’s demands are accepted, it would allow carmakers to sell far fewer battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and far more polluting combustion engines than under the current target. T&E estimates it could lead to BEV sales flatlining at their current 21% market share for the rest of the decade, rather than the 57% required by the current law in 2030.

Oil dependency increased

Émilie Casteignau Bernardini, vehicles policy manager at T&E, comments: “Carmakers are fuelling Europe’s oil dependency at a time when many Europeans are paying €2 a liter for petrol. While drivers are struggling to fill their tanks, ACEA wants to delay the supply of more affordable EVs that people want.”

“It’s disappointing to see the German government give in to the car industry’s lobbying to slow down electrification. The future is electric, and delaying that will hurt citizens and Europe’s competitiveness,” she adds.

ACEA versus the EU Commission’s proposal

In December, the EU Commission proposed weakening carmakers’ 2035 target from a 100% reduction in CO2 to a -90% reduction. ACEA is demanding that the target be weakened further to -80% by awarding 10% of credits to carmakers without conditions, a further 5% for fuels that emit less than petrol, and 5% for low-carbon materials.

T&E estimates that these could result in BEV sales accounting for just 52% of the market, rather than 100%, in 2035. “The fuel credits would allow carmakers to sell fewer EVs in return for non-existent emissions savings,” T&E warns.

“The ACEA proposal could cost the EU €74 billion extra in oil imports between 2026-2035 by slashing the amount of crude oil that would be displaced by BEVs under the current law,” T&E calculated. “It could increase CO₂ emissions from European cars by up to 2.4 Gigaton CO₂ between 2026 and 2050 compared to the current regulation. “This equates to over five years of emissions from today’s entire EU car fleet,” T&E figured out.

More ambition

According to T&E, the EU must show much greater ambition. It calls on EU lawmakers to maintain the current car CO2 targets and strengthen demand for EVs by supporting an ambitious ‘Clean Corporate Fleets law’.

The draft fleet law and the proposed revision of the car CO2 targets are currently under debate in the European Parliament and among EU governments.