According to a new study by the International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT), the world could save 8.8 million human lives through 2050 with a more ambitious plan toward electrification.
The new report tallies up the massive amounts of deaths caused by vehicle pollution, finding that one person dies globally every 45 seconds as a result of vehicle exhaust pollution.
Various pollutants
The ICCT analyzed the health effects of various pollutants, such as ozone, fine particulate matter, and nitrogen dioxide, emitted by vehicle exhaust. In 2024, these pollutants caused 700,000 premature deaths and 250,000 new childhood asthma cases. About 42,000 of those deaths each year are in America.
After collecting these data, the ICCT examined various EV adoption scenarios to estimate how these numbers would change over time. It started with the ‘baseline’ scenario, assuming policies in place from 2025 continue to be in place until 2050, and found that if we continue on this path, premature deaths will increase by 74% by 2050, to one death every 26 seconds.
‘Ambitious’ scenario
The ‘ambitious’ scenario, on the other hand, with policies such as “global vehicle sales are 100% electric by 2045” (and even earlier for select vehicle markets), would reduce premature deaths by 63% and childhood asthma by 80%.
The ICCT particularly warns of the effect of heavy-duty transport on air pollution. While personal vehicles are a major contributor to pollution due to their sheer number, each truck pollutes far more than each car, underscoring the necessity of electrifying heavy transport.
Rapid electrification in China
Notably, the study does not include the effects of climate change, only air pollution. Internal combustion engines also emit CO2 and other greenhouse gases that warm the planet, disrupt ecosystems, and cause sea levels to rise.
This is not the first study of this sort, and it won’t be the last. They all show that an intentional policy of slowing the electrification of transportation will lead to more deaths. In the meantime, a recent study shows that rapid electrification in China has already saved 262,000 lives, a fate that the rest of the world could share with smarter policy.
