BloombergNEF expects global electric-car sales to set another record in 2026, even as the United States moves sharply in the opposite direction.

Its new Electric Vehicle Outlook forecasts 23.3 million passenger EV sales worldwide this year, 11% more than in 2025, giving plug-in cars a 27% share of the global new-car market.

The headline is therefore not that the electric transition is stalling. It is that it is becoming far more uneven. BNEF uses the term EV to include both battery-electric cars and plug-in hybrids.

Half of global car sales by 2035

BloombergNEF, the Bloomberg-backed energy-transition research provider, is widely used by investors, policymakers, and industry for its proprietary market data and long-term scenario modeling, although its forecasts should be read as evidence-based scenarios rather than certainties.

Its outlook sees passenger EVs exceeding half of global new-car sales by 2035, driven by falling battery costs, a growing selection of more affordable models, and rapidly expanding demand outside traditional large markets.

China remains the center of gravity

China remains the industry’s center of gravity. It accounted for 63% of all passenger EV sales worldwide in 2025 and, despite a slower growth rate as the market matures, is still expected to represent 52% of global EV sales in 2030. Electric cars already accounted for almost two-thirds of new-car sales in China last year.

The other striking trend is the rise of countries that until recently barely figured in global EV forecasts. Nearly half of Singapore’s new cars were electric in 2025, while EVs accounted for 39% of sales in Vietnam, 27% in Thailand, and 22% in Turkey.

Chinese brands have been crucial in several of these markets, but Vietnam offers a distinct model. VinFast, the EV arm of the wider Vingroup conglomerate, has become the country’s leading carmaker, backed by a domestic ecosystem spanning vehicle production, charging, and electric taxi services.

The group is now seeking to turn that national industrial success into an international business, prioritizing Southeast Asia and India while expanding sales in markets such as the Philippines, Indonesia, Europe, and the Middle East.

The US is a clear outlier

The US, however, is becoming the clear outlier. BNEF expects US EV sales to fall by 19% in 2026 after the rollback of federal regulatory support, weaker fuel-economy rules, and a scaling back of Inflation Reduction Act support.

That policy retreat is now being mirrored in carmakers’ product planning. Several manufacturers have delayed, reduced, or canceled electric models for the US market, while shifting some attention back to hybrids and combustion-engine vehicles.

Ford, GM, and Stellantis have all scaled back parts of their EV plans, while other brands are narrowing their US electric line-ups in response to weaker demand and regulatory uncertainty.

The research group has reduced its long-term outlook for the second consecutive year, partly because of the US reversal and partly because China is now a much larger, more mature EV market.

Europe is advancing

That explains why reports focused on the American market can give the impression that global electrification is losing momentum. It is not. The US is retreating, but Europe, China, and a growing number of emerging markets are advancing.

Europe remains central to that picture. The International Energy Agency expects electric-car sales in Europe to rise by around 20% in 2026, taking electric vehicles to roughly one in three new cars sold.

Recent market data already point in that direction, with electrified cars driving European registration growth while petrol and diesel demand declines.

The European transition still has a major affordability problem. BNEF calculates that battery-electric cars in Germany, Italy, and the United Kingdom remain, on average, 17% more expensive upfront than comparable combustion cars.

That gap has narrowed substantially from 34% in 2024, but it remains a reminder that regulation, taxation, and fleet policy are still doing much of the work alongside product improvements and lower running costs.

Belgium is one of the EU’s stronger EV markets

Belgium fits that pattern particularly well. The country does not receive a separate forecast in BNEF’s public outlook, but it is already one of Europe’s stronger electric-car markets. According to FEBIAC, battery-electric cars accounted for 143,849 registrations in 2025, or 34.7% of the Belgian new-car market.

Yet the Belgian model remains heavily dependent on business cars. Only 15,483 of those battery-electric registrations were made by private buyers, just 10.8% of the total.

The electric transition is therefore advancing rapidly in company fleets, while the private market remains more cautious and continues to favor self-charging hybrids.

That distinction matters. Belgium can remain above the European average in new EV registrations as company-car electrification continues, but the next stage will depend on whether electric cars become more compelling for households without a tax-advantaged lease.

Lower purchase prices, more affordable financing, a healthier used-EV market, and confidence in charging will matter more than headline registration records.