The number of airline passengers is projected to more than double by 2045, following an average annual growth rate of 3.9%, reaching approximately 10 billion per year. This is according to Airbus’s new Global Market Forecast 2026-2045, the European aerospace corporation.

Although the aviation industry has set a net-zero goal for 2050, the forecast also raises the question of whether its efforts to reduce emissions can proceed quickly enough to keep pace with this rapid growth. Most climate scientists are highly skeptical about this.

Shift toward smaller cities

According to Airbus, the main reasons for the growing demand for air travel are economic growth, continued urbanization, a shift toward smaller cities, and the world’s population growth, accompanied by an expanding middle class and a growing diaspora. Airbus’s estimates are in line with those of IATA, the International Air Transport Association.

For example, the middle class, the demographic that flies most frequently, is projected to grow by 1.4 billion people (+34%) by 2045. By then, an additional 1.3 billion people will be living in urban centers, fueling demand for air travel.

As a result, Airbus also expects the number of smaller urban centers to grow nearly three times as fast as the number of larger ones, enabling direct connections between destinations that previously could not support nonstop routes.

Another notable trend is the increase in international migration and family-related travel. Travel patterns are expected to change significantly, particularly in countries such as India, Vietnam, Indonesia, and Malaysia.

Due to these factors combined, air traffic is expected to reach 21,300 billion revenue passenger-kilometers in 2045, up from 9,999 billion in 2025.

The largest air travel market is then projected to be China’s domestic market, surpassing the United States’. The third-largest market would be India’s domestic market, with an expected growth rate of about 10% per year, meaning it will increase more than sixfold over the next 20 years, ahead of routes connecting two airports in Western Europe.

High demand for new aircraft

To accommodate this growth, Airbus estimates that 42,060 new aircraft will be delivered over the next 20 years: 19,820 replacements for older aircraft and 22,240 additional ones. Just over 4 out of 5 new aircraft would be single-aisle models – not the largest long-haul jets.

Also noteworthy: the share of latest-generation aircraft in the global fleet will rise from about 39% in 2026 to nearly 100% in 2045.

Airbus and Boeing together control the vast majority of the single-aisle segment, accounting for more than 93% of the market, and produce all of the world’s wide-body aircraft.

This will largely remain the case in the coming decades, a fact confirmed by the order books: the A320neo family currently has 11,179 orders, and the Boeing 737 MAX has 6,779 – both many times the number held by the Chinese challenger, COMAC.

What about the climate?

The report makes no mention of the impact of that strong growth on the climate. Still, Airbus has consistently emphasized that newer aircraft consume significantly less fuel and emit less CO2 per passenger-kilometer than the fleets they replace.

But even if every aircraft becomes more fuel-efficient, the number of flights is growing faster than efficiency gains can offset. A doubling of the number of passengers, combined with roughly a 20-30% reduction in emissions per flight thanks to new aircraft, still results in a substantial net increase in the sector’s total CO2 emissions.

Furthermore, Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAF) and electric/hydrogen technologies are often cited as solutions, but they remain in an early, expensive, and limited stage, meaning that, realistically, they will cover only a fraction of fuel consumption by 2045.

Aviation already accounts for about 2 to 3% of global CO2 emissions, but its full climate impact, including contrails and other non-CO2 effects at high altitudes, is greater. Scientists estimate that these non-CO2 effects roughly triple the warming caused by aviation.