Last June, Western Europe was hit by the most widespread heat wave on record, and several countries in Southern Europe are currently still grappling with persistent, intense heat and wildfires.

UNECE, the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe, then called on countries in Europe, North America, and Central Asia to urgently make their transportation infrastructure climate-resilient.

A 2025 study by VUB researchers Cristina Deidda and Wim Thiery, supported by the European Commission and which received little attention at the time, already pointed this out: the European transportation network is not prepared for the climate extremes that lie ahead.

Their study, which both Le Soir and VRT are now highlighting, is a wake-up call with a “double whammy” message: the network is already falling behind, and without combined mitigation and adaptation efforts, the gap between what the infrastructure can handle and what the climate brings will only grow wider.

Damage to the transportation network

In the study “Is Europe’s transport infrastructure ready to face climate change?” – which is currently undergoing revision following peer review – the researchers combine two elements: a literature review of damage already observed due to climate extreme (2010-2018/2022) to European transport infrastructure, such as roads, railways, airports, waterways, and ports, and an exposure analysis based on climate models, in which they calculate how much more frequently the Trans-European Transport Network (TEN-T) will be exposed to river floods, heat waves, droughts, tropical storms, and wildfires in the future.

We have all experienced firsthand how the climate has already caused considerable damage to the transportation network. For example, the dry summer of 2018 caused inland waterway traffic in Germany to come to a virtual standstill due to low water levels on the Rhine, resulting in 2,4 billion euros in damage – in fact, even now the water level is again lower than normal…

The 2021 flash floods, which hit Belgium and Germany particularly hard, caused damage to railways, bridges, and signaling systems, resulting in costs of 2,8 billion and 17 billion euros, respectively.

Greece was also hit by floods in both 2021 and 2023, with roads becoming impassable and bridges damaged. Damage to the rail system alone amounted to 150 million euros.

Wildfires in Sicily in 2023 caused the airport to close, just as the heavy rainfall that hit Barcelona in November 2024 led to the cancellation of dozens of flights.

And for those with short memories: due to the recent heat wave in June, up to 100 trains per day were canceled in Belgium.

We also saw reduced service in France, while speed restrictions were imposed in the UK due to track buckling, and it also became clear that only slightly more than half of the buses operated by the Walloon transportation company LETEC are equipped with air conditioning.

90% of the transportation network will be affected in the future

If we follow the scenario in which the Earth warms by +3° by the middle or end of the century, the researchers predict that we will experience up to 30 times as many heat waves by 2040-2069, affecting 90% of the transportation network.

By the middle of the century, drought could already affect about 50% of Europe’s inland waterways, and by the end of the century, as much as 70%. Up to 45% of roads and railways could also be affected by drought.

Forest fires, in turn, would disrupt roads and railways up to 26 times more often, while river flooding would occur locally up to 8 times more frequently.

Especially in the Mediterranean region, the sharpest increases would be in both heat waves and wildfires, and extreme events would also occur more frequently together or in succession (“compound events”), such as heat, drought, and wildfires.

At the same time, the researchers also point out that it is not only infrastructure damage in the event of extreme weather that must be taken into account.

But also the disruption of supply chains, economic activity will consequently be hampered, and there will also be an impact on public health, for example, passengers stuck on trains for hours during heat waves, sometimes resulting in exhaustion and hospitalizations, or higher mortality rates.

Ambitious emissions reductions remain necessary.

The good news is that mitigation, or measures that combat global warming at the source, works. Under the more moderate +2°C scenario, the average increase in exposure can be reduced by 2-30% by mid-century, compared to the current policy trajectory.

However, adaptation alone will likely not be sufficient. Even with infrastructure upgrades, such as improved drainage or more heat-resistant materials, ambitious emissions reductions remain necessary to keep the risk truly manageable and to safeguard the reliability and resilience of the grid.

And we also need to invest in resilient infrastructure, design standards must be updated as a matter of urgency, and climate considerations must be incorporated into planning.

So, there is work to be done for governments, public authorities, provinces, cities, and municipalities, and CEOs alike, and the question we all need to ask is no longer whether the climate is changing, but rather how well prepared we are. Otherwise, we’ll feel the impact not only on the roads and tracks, but also in our insurance premiums.