Just a few years ago, European aircraft manufacturer Airbus wasn’t particularly concerned about the rise of Chinese aircraft manufacturer Comac. These days, however, Airbus is carefully adjusting its language

“Hardly a week goes by without us discussing competition in China,” said Lars Wagner, Airbus’s Head of Commercial Aircraft, during a recent press conference in Toulouse.

Wagner increasingly views Comac as a serious rival because the Shanghai-based, state-owned manufacturer is investing heavily in production, robotics, and automation. Furthermore, Comac has begun systematically reducing the proportion of Western components in its C919, a narrow-body aircraft designed for 158 to 192 passengers, built to compete directly with the Airbus A320neo and the Boeing 737 MAX.

Chinese threat

Wagner maintains that Airbus is “not extremely concerned,’ but emphasizes that the company is monitoring developments closely. His rationale? China delivers on what it puts in its 5-year plans, and in March 2026, it explicitly outlined its strategy for domestically produced large aircraft (C919 and C929).

For now, growth is theoretically possible for both players, with the global fleet expected to double to 42,000 aircraft by 2045. Moreover, Comac is currently falling short on its own targets: it has delivered roughly 42 C919s so far, including about 12 in 2026, and was forced to scale back its 2025 target from 75 to 25 aircraft. Yet Airbus delivers about 100 narrow-body aircraft annually in China alone, underscoring the massive pressure at stake.

Less dependent on the West

China’s manufacturing sector is evolving rapidly. Currently, the C919 relies on 48 major American and 26 European suppliers, compared to 14 Chinese ones. Crucial systems—such as avionics, landing gear, and the CFM engines—still come largely from the West. Despite American tactics to delay parts licenses and restrict quantities to prevent stockpiling ahead of potential sanctions, China is steadily developing home-grown alternatives, such as the CJ-1001 engine.

This creates a long-term risk for Western aerospace: if Comac replaces and scales its supply chain, it will become far less vulnerable to sanctions and fully capable of competing globally.

The barriers for Comac

However, that reality is still a way off. For now, the C919 operates almost exclusively within China. It lacks FAA or EASA certification, with Comac targeting European approval around 2028-2029, though it did recently complete its first international scheduled flight.

Engines also remain a critical vulnerability; the CJ-1000A is still under development, and the U.S. temporarily suspending export licenses for CFM engines in May 2025 highlighted how fragile Comac’s supply line remains.

This situation places Airbus in a complex geopolitical and technical dilemma. On the one hand, China is Airbus’s largest customer by fleet size, with projected demand for about 9,570 new aircraft over the next 20 years. Every C919 bought by a Chinese airline is one less A320 sold.

To protect its foothold, Airbus maintains deep ties with China, operating a second assembly line in Tianjin and partnering with state-owned AVIC on the A220 and A350.

Airbus’s dilemma

Yet, friction is inevitable: China recently delayed approvals for Airbus deliveries, reportedly to pressure Europe over C919 certification (Airbus attributed the delay to a now-resolved administrative issue).

Meanwhile, Airbus, which is also betting on its newest cargo aircraft, the A350F, faces an intense technological timeline. The manufacturer plans to launch the A320 successor around 2030, with entry into service scheduled for the end of the next decade. The timing is no coincidence: it links to growing competition from China, as Comac’s CJ-1000A engine could enter service around 2028-2029.

The technical gamble for Airbus is immense. Airbus must select the engine expected to power its new aircraft, CFM’s open-fan RISE engine, by 2028 or 2029, well before the technology is fully proven. While the open-fan design promises a 20% reduction in fuel burn, flight tests will not occur until around 2029, and questions remain about its resistance to bird strikes and sand.

While Wagner denies that the launch is delayed, noting that Airbus is also evaluating an advanced conventional engine, it is an understatement to say tension is rising in Toulouse as Airbus fights to retain its top spot.

Fortunately for Airbus, Boeing is taking a more cautious approach. Boeing CEO Kelly Ortberg believes airlines are looking for an incremental improvement to the 737 MAX rather than an entirely new aircraft. Boeing has not ruled out an open-fan design for its next aircraft, but for now, its lower-risk strategy gives Airbus a bit more breathing room on its flank.