As the Iran war drives up fuel and energy prices, oil majors are reporting extraordinary profits. BP’s earnings have nearly quadrupled, Shell is making billions from refining, and even US President Trump’s oil investments are gaining value. Meanwhile, European governments are struggling to agree on how to ease the burden on consumers.
British oil giant BP reported underlying third-quarter profits of $8.46 billion, up from $2.21 billion a year earlier. Shell earned $10.81 billion in adjusted profits, while TotalEnergies more than doubled its adjusted net income to $9.1 billion.
American giants are also benefiting: ExxonMobil reported quarterly earnings of $15.4 billion and Chevron $9.9 billion. According to environmental group Global Witness, Europe’s six largest oil companies accumulated $89 billion in profits during the first nine months of 2026.
Making fortunes from scarcity
With the Strait of Hormuz largely closed and Middle Eastern supplies disrupted, Brent crude has climbed towards $118 per barrel. Oil producers can sell their output at higher prices without proportionately higher extraction costs.
Refining has become particularly lucrative because shortages of diesel and aviation fuel have pushed up their selling prices faster than crude oil costs. This widens the refining margin – the difference between the cost of crude and the revenue from the fuels produced from it – allowing refineries to earn substantially more per barrel processed.
Shell’s earnings from oil products increased almost fivefold, from $758 million to $3.7 billion year-on-year, as shortages drove up diesel and aviation fuel prices. BP says its refineries are running close to capacity to compensate for disrupted supplies.
Meanwhile, OPEC+ has maintained its December production targets despite high prices. Many producers are already operating below their quotas due to infrastructure and export disruptions, limiting the impact of any increase.
Trump benefits from oil investments, too
The financial gains also extend to US President Donald Trump. According to an October 26 analysis by Democrats on the US Congressional Joint Economic Committee, his oil and gas investments could be worth as much as $81.6 million, compared with an upper estimate of $45.8 million at the end of 2025.
The increase includes additional purchases, not just investment gains. The White House insists independent managers control his portfolio, and there is no evidence that his financial interests influenced his military decisions. Nevertheless, his holdings raise potential conflict-of-interest questions as the war drives up energy prices.
Consumers pay more than once
For motorists, the difference is immediate: a 50-liter fill-up costs €20 more at €2.10 per liter than at €1.70. Higher fuel and energy costs also filter through to transport, agriculture, and manufacturing, and ultimately into the prices of everyday goods.
The mounting pressure is fueling protests on both sides of the Atlantic. Truck drivers have disrupted deliveries in Italy and protested in France, while independent US truckers have staged limited work stoppages over soaring diesel costs.
Rising gasoline prices and opposition to the Iran war have also featured in America’s broader anti-Trump demonstrations. US diesel prices have climbed above $6.30 per gallon, adding to the pressure on the White House ahead of the November 3 midterm elections.
Trump’s controversial October deal with Vladimir Putin to import Russian diesel has so far brought little relief. The promised supplies are considered insufficient to ease global shortages, while damage to Russian refineries casts doubt on deliveries. Meanwhile, Washington has relaxed sanctions on Russian fuel, potentially providing Moscow with additional revenue for its war in Ukraine.
Governments may collect more VAT, too. In Belgium, where 21% VAT is charged on fuel prices, including excise duties, a €0.40-per-liter increase generates around €3.47 in additional gross VAT on a 50-liter fill-up.
That is not necessarily a net gain for the Treasury, given lower consumption and additional public expenditure. Belgium’s regulated maximum fuel prices constrain domestic distribution margins but cannot limit international oil-company profits.
Different responses across Europe
France is using strategic reserves to provide immediate relief. It is releasing 10 million barrels of diesel purchased before the war, enabling supermarket chain E. Leclerc to cut prices by 21 eurocents per liter at 742 stations. TotalEnergies has reduced diesel to €2.15 per liter at its Access stations.
Germany has introduced fuel-tax reductions worth approximately 17 eurocents per liter, including VAT, until the end of December, at an estimated cost of €2.5 billion. The Netherlands maintains temporary excise discounts and proposes extending them through 2027.
Belgium approved €80 million in temporary support for commuters and vulnerable households earlier this year, but has not introduced comparable new autumn fuel-tax cuts.
The longer-term response is equally divided. Germany, Spain, Portugal, Italy, Poland and Austria are pressing for a new EU-wide windfall tax, while the Netherlands prefers European coordination over a new national levy.
Belgium did not join the six-country initiative, although Prime Minister Bart De Wever was tasked in April with advocating a European tax. Finance Minister Jan Jambon wants greater legal clarity, while the coalition parties Les Engagés and MR have called for further action, including possible reductions in fuel taxes.
The EU’s previous solidarity contribution, introduced after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, collected €26.15 billion, with total proceeds expected to approach €28.7 billion. Much of the money was directed to energy consumers.
A renewed tax would not directly lower pump prices, but its proceeds could finance energy rebates, targeted business support or cleaner mobility. No new EU-wide levy has yet been agreed.
Electrification reduces exposure
For motorists, the crisis reinforces the operating-cost advantage of electric vehicles. At €2.10 per liter, a petrol car consuming 6.5 litres/100 km costs €13.65 per 100 km.
An EV consuming 18 kWh/100 km, including charging losses, costs €5.40 when charged at home at €0.30/kWh. Over 20,000 kilometers, the difference amounts to €1,650 annually in energy costs alone.
Public charging can narrow that advantage, but electrification also reduces dependence on volatile international oil markets.
As oil companies accumulate billions in exceptional earnings, European governments face a choice over how to distribute the economic costs of the crisis, and how quickly relief can reach consumers.
